How Bay Area returns ! An example from reddit. Edited/removed some contents

[tomato]

Sure, i guess, that’s true.

[wuqijun]

Other than that, I do have a crystal ball

[Roy321]

People who think the market is AT THE TOP should also give credible reasons why they think so.

[Jil]

@wuqijun

Because unlike what you are trying to infer, he knows we are not at the top.

Last time, when he sold, he would not have similar cash flow.

This time, he has better cash flow as rent $10000, he may likely hold, even at top, as he can get continuous better cash flow.

Second, even if there is a fall, it is no secret, we will not have 2008-2011 kind of fall.

There is no point in speculating real estate this time as his cash flow benefits him long term holding .

[hanera]

@wuqijun

Because unlike what you are trying to infer, he knows we are not at the top.

Wrong inference. I am thinking what signals/ factors he monitor to decide is not at the top yet or has he decided to change strategy to build a rental stream?

[Elt1]

$10k net?

[Jil]

@Elt1

$10k net?

Yes, he said net!

I saw my friends bought 6 Sacramento homes in 2009-2010 timeframe ( range 150k-180k Multiple Short sales) , now renting 10k + rent. They bought those SS with full cash paid at Natomas location.

[Jil]

@hanera

@wuqijun

Because unlike what you are trying to infer, he knows we are not at the top.

Wrong inference. I am thinking what signals/ factors he monitor to decide is not at the top yet or has he decided to change strategy to build a rental stream?

Exactly, any one bought real estate assets pre-2012 is almost like your AAPL or WQJ’s FB kind of holding. Those produces ever lasting cash flow that outperform the benefit of sell ( pay tax ) and buy. There is no point of selling pre-2012 assets at any time future unless they fall below 50% of value (as of now )