This is pretty interesting. I know many startups are on this path but 1000 samples are quite a bit.
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@manch would cry foul! Planning is not the same as actually executing it.
Anyhoo, I don’t have any rentals in downtown.
First hint that the old concept of one centralized HQ are fading is when AAPL and AMZN are building 2nd HQs. Apple didn’t say is Austin is 2nd HQ but pretty clear it is. Previous structure is one worldwide HQ and many regional HQs, going forward, regional HQs could take lead in developing worldwide systems rather than just implementing regional variants.
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Does not sound good for high density and high cost and poor living conditions cities like SF at all. If all tech job disappeared SF can’t even function. Rents will plummet, taxes will plummet. Massive wave of foreclosures and chaos.
Last 6 months multi family residential + commercial properties >5000 sqft stats of SF.
Q2 2020:
On market: 17
Sold: 5
Q3 2020:
On market: 38
Sold: 1
Nothing is selling n plenty of inventory coming.
All? Like 100%? Rent plummets and yet nobody takes advantage of it?
Did you take microeconomics 101 in college? Do you remember those supply and demand curves?
Well i put an if in the front if you can read. Its understandable that it won’t happen 100%. But even 50% is enough I think.
So it’s an event with zero probability of happening. Why waste time writing about it?
Just to illustrate how much dependent SF is NOW on tech jobs and that the new trend of remote work poses foundational threats to the city.
SF will surely adapt if a large tax base chooses to move away. Like I said many times before, countries that successfully beat Covid have mostly returned to their old ways. China has a very big tech sector. I have never heard techies from Tencent and Alibaba all work from home right now. They all return to their offices. If it’s such a productivity booster I’d expect companies would do it voluntarily even after the pandemic is over.
And then we have more and more bosses like Netflix saying no, remote work sucks.
I guess we will have to wait until the pandemic is under control in the US. We will have a much clearer picture by mid year 2021.
I really wonder if you are in denial. Isn’t this broad enough study for you:
US is different from China where employers do not trust employees. Many Chinese companies don’t even give laptops to employees. It’s a different world so don’t compare.
OK then. I will just use you and the Russian guy as my canaries in the coal mine. You two hate the Bay Area but somehow still stay. That’s good enough for me. That means Bay Area’s pluses still outweigh your hatred.
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Primary effect on Seattle market, but “some” effect on Bay Area Market too.
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Yea, up to 50% is kinda what I am expecting as hybrid model. IMO, it is good for the area, less traffic and people will be spread out. I am curious on what are the criteria for permanent WFH - I assume they will also restrict to certain level like Facebook.
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WFH is a game changer for Tahoe and the Sacramento MSA. I have been making bets up here since 1989. Time to cash in? I think it might run for a while. WFH is here to stay.
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50% is more generous than I expected. That translates to 2.5 days per week. If Facebook or Google offer similar policy, employees could move to as far away as Sac. Silicon Valley’s boundary could easily double.
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Meanwhile prices in Fortress would go sideways till saturated, could be a few years? decades? before rallying. Sell your rental NOW and buy stocks. Switch back to RE when it starts to run again.
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I expect much higher than 50%. Much like 80%. You don’t need to spend more than 20% of time socializing networking meeting n Doing politics. If a company needs more than that it’s in trouble anyway. Office time and politics is the biggest productivity killer. Tech jobs are primed for remote work and benefits are numerous like cost talent pool productivity happiness etc. 1 day a week or a few days a month is enough face time. Good Managers will learn how to operate in this new world and give unprecedented productivity scaling and efficiency. Those who can’t adapt will be left behind.
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Typically how many 10x do a company has? Only the core management + 10x + new high potential hires need to be in the office, rest can WFH permanently. So this group is 20%?
Could be. But long term it will be great for SV. Anything good for the health of the tech ecosystem will generate more wealth, and more wealth will push up real estate prices.
If you think about it, more WFH days is really a more efficient way to use our land resources.
Nobody should aspire to be in the 100% WFH group. These people are non essential, can be easily replaced by smart young graduates from India and they don’t even bother doing any F2F networking.