How to Retire at Age 44 with $11M

Most of blind is just tech bro’s comparing notes on TC and bitching about politics inside or outside of companies. He’s giving up TC north of 400k to have some peace and quiet. Probably don’t care about those silly things anym

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Also he came across as a very level headed and humble guy. Married fairly young and his youngest daughter is going to start college this year. Very mature for a 44 year old.

why would US in trouble if AMZN and APPLE in trouble?
WMT, Target, HomeDepot (they also sell laundry and cleaning supplies a), will replace Amazon. These stores are now open early and close later. Easy to grab things as needed on time. Those online deliveries are for those who are so busy in office that cannot shop around…

US is better off with $200 Chinese or Korean phone.(those phone will further get cheaper as more sales in larger US market)
People will have more disposable income and less trade deficit with some confidence in currency.

You do not understand what I said: AMZN and AAPL will get into trouble only when all other companies/entire USA is in trouble and get hit first !

The top 1 T companies are cash rich companies, and they are last to get into trouble.

If some companies cash surplus/rich (and some one cash rich), they will withstand all economic headwinds during the recessionary time.

Extending the same in real estate, cash rich areas in RBA (real bay area) will not go down drastically when there is real estate correction as number of bankruptcy filings are very less in such areas. Home price won’t go down drastically in such areas.

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My thought is very, very few companies operate in a big enough space to reach $1T. There’s only a few of them right now and not very many above $500B. There will be a bunch more that go from under $10B to $100B.

Another way to look at it is you typically need to be a major force in multiple businesses to reach $1T. What are the odds of one company being able to be successful across multiple different businesses? We see all the time companies fail when entering a new business through acquisition or their own R&D. You can go from $10B to $100B on one highly successful business which makes it easier to accomplish. You just need that one business to have a massive addressable market. Not having a big enough market turns it into a GoPro or Fitbit who have some explosive growth, but then it’s brutal when growth stalls and they can’t successfully enter a new business.

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See this guy will make it…He has his own niche !

His key for the success is here => He tried to learn everything about this industry. he read plenty of academic papers, blog posts.

His background:

  • Electrical and Electronic engineer,
  • Software developer (20+ years)
  • Trader (5+ years)
  • Algorithmic trader (3+ years)

He did what I have wanted to do since graduation. Difference is he took action. I didn’t :sob:

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Just tell me his long term return.

Normally, they beat S&P at low end, but may have easily 25% over S&P in average.
I just asked him the same question, he did not reply yet.

Whatever he is going to reply is unbelievable level only.

On any case, it should not matter to anyone except him.

I can confidently say he will beat S&P fairly at higher percentage basis. Such progress accumulate exponentially.

The point is buying $2m home in Cupertino made $2m at risk. if you want to liquidate it at crises time.
while buying $500K home in other places make $500K at risk. while spare plenty of cash for other investments. creating currency and metal hedges.
Brentwood has same weather as SouthBay.

This is very old topic which we discussed during 2008-2013 periods. You are new to this kind of topic!

You think Brentwood home is safer than Cupertino? Try it out.

Back in 2008, average 3 homes were in foreclosure every month, the price drop was 5%-7%. Even during peak downturn period, full cash offers are common.

In Brent wood, average 30%-40% of homes were in foreclosure, the price drop was 40%. No one will come forward (as jobless more) to buy homes during recession and price drops with low demand.

I knew Tracy homes dropped from $650k to $350k.

The percentage drop are not 100% accurate, but very appx.

Now, you tell me which you prefer…Also, your need to drive all the way from Brentwood to office.

further reading use this:

http://geog.berkeley.edu/PeopleHistory/faculty/R_Walker/Walker_93.pdf

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He sent a reply:

I must test with the same kind of data that I can have in crypto. My algorithm’s asset selector is very powerfull in crypto. if it works the same way in S&P, it can generate similar results. Crypto is mostly much more volatile than S&P assets. Also much more sophisticated algorithms are running there. So we can easily say 5000x in 3 years is not possible. maybe 10x to 50x is achievable but asset selector must work like crypto.

Past is not indicator of future. demographic of buyers change.
if Brentwood homes goes down 40%. it will be hardly make $200K loss. while Cupertino home 20% down will be $400K loss. Plus the opportunity cost of extra $1.5M stuck in dead investments. with no future going up further.
It simply too risky to spend so much in area depending on a firm that is contributing largest trade deficit.

With this logic, why stops at Brentwood? Why not buy at Midwest for 100K and with 40% down, you will only lost 40K.

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Brentwood still near bayarea.
Cherry picking, Enjoy Tahoe Ski. less than 40 minutes to San Mateo or Bay bridge. Alot new homes built. so presumbly infrastructure in good shape. Alot of contractors live in Eastbay. they can easily visit should home need modification or remodeling.

All your questions, one answer, try it out, you will know.

@hanera & @manch,

I read this kind of posts, get to know the fundamental details, monitor the stock TDOC during results.

Over a period of time, we will master the fundamental analysis of many companies and easy to choose new companies.

TDOC I am following since it was $55, bought many times, now I do not have this stock. IMO, this has potential to grow.

This has come 2x in a year.

BTW: Viewers do not ask me anything about this TDOC, it is up to you to read/analyze and invest. This is not a stock or investment advice for TDOC.

In that case, trade options aggressively, can get similar returns.

You read a lot and did a lot of FA. But didn’t buy n hold. For example, SHOP, VEEV, … you mentioned they are rock solid in 2017 - what give?

He is doing that with cryptocoins, not with stocks, that is his area. Options are tricky and we need to be right every time. The main point is success rate must be high. This is the key for any strategy.

Post facto we understand these are good, not before. First knowing future (SHOP, VEEV) is not guaranteed, second I learnt it is hard to beat S&P in the long run. One wrong choice will bring down below S&P. You and WQJ are really lucky in this side.

I came late to stocks and want to win consistently over S&P next 10 years which is doable by my methods (including taxes).

Until Nov 2019, I was holding/trading lot of stocks, appx 30 stocks. Later I realized each one has different growth, hard to maintain it. Sold everything between Nov 2019 and Jan 2020. With this above practice, I used to get 8%-15% over S&P last 3 years.

By 2020, I moved to options and 3x which gave higher returns than last 3 years, completely moved to 3x trading. No need of fundamentals, easy buy/sell with single click and gives me better returns that previous ones. This is again personal choice and comfort.

At some point of later, I will be back on fundamentals and buy/hold. I do not have any clue when (or even whether I will choose that path!).

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After years of debate of supporting FA, you move to TA!

Only in this current environment. It will change. Market always change. When you think you have the right strategy, market changes, then you need to find another strategy. Until then, enjoy the ride :grinning:

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