So a Bay Area downturn is basically equivalent to a super hot market anywhere else… I was afraid of that 
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good point, one that I have been thinking about… so far it looks like there are plenty of rentals in the area (old timers have kept their houses and moved elsewhere, keep them as rentals). definitely something to keep an eye on
@MM_HH pretty much doesn’t know what he is talking about. Statements full of contradictions!!! Beware listening to any of that advice…
Exactly what don’t you agree with so Rent and Vent can decide for himself who is full of shit?
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I do know you said IMO, however 
…
What if economy keeps growing at 2% for the next 4 years & house prices at 4%, will someone be more inclined to buy then(in the future) than now?
My question above was rhetorical . My point is nobody knows. Even the famous Mr Shiller says this → Again Mr. Shiller’s keyword is “could” i.e. he too doesn’t know . BUT he isn’t doom and gloom like his views in 2006-07.
[quote=“MM_HH, post:36, topic:2600”]I think the bay area could get hit harder than it did in 2008. There has been a huge tech boom here that softened the 2008 recession in the bay. Google, Apple and others were growing like crazy through the last recession. If we have a recession more like 2001 (tech bubble popping), things could really take a hit here in a way that hasn’t been seen in awhile.
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- Today, Stocks of high flying companies like Twtr, Snapchat aren’t reaching skyhigh valuations like stocks of similar companies in 1999 or 2000.
- Housing mortgage lending is very tight.
Point is everyone/market learnt something from both the recessions, hence behavior of both IPO+ stock market & housing market has changed UNLIKE before the housing bubble.
The Housing price increase today is mainly a result of a supply constraint & low interest rates & reasonable job market.
IMO,Whether recession or no recession, Google, Apple, Netflix & new ones which weren’t there in 2008 like Facebook,AirBnb,Fitbit… (Uber??), etc are global brands and entities providing very unique functions with no viable competitors GLOBALLY and are not going anywhere in the near future.
Next recession, whenever that happens will not be IMO due to tech bubble or housing bubble(because reasons for those have been largely taken care of), but will come from another unknown source & the timing of the recession is also unknown at this point & no large red lights are flashing in the horizon currently.
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- Today, Stocks of high flying companies like Twtr, Snapchat aren’t reaching skyhigh valuations like stocks of companies did in 1999 or 2000.
- Housing mortgage lending is very tight.
Point is everyone/market learnt something from both the recessions, hence behavior of both IPO+ stock market & housing market has changed UNLIKE before the housing bubble.
The Housing price increase today is mainly a result of a supply constraint & low interest rates & reasonable job market.
IMO,Whether recession or no recession, Google, Apple, Netflix & new ones which weren’t there in 2008 like Facebook,AirBnb,Fitbit… (Uber??), etc are global brands and entities providing very unique functions with no viable competitors GLOBALLY and are not going anywhere in the near future.
Next recession, whenever that happens will not be IMO due to tech bubble or housing bubble(because reasons for those have been largely taken care of), but will come from another unknown source & the timing of the recession is also unknown at this point & no large red lights are flashing in the horizon currently.
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Sure. I could be wrong that we are near the peak. It is an opinion based on living here during the last two boom/busts. But since he is incline to rent anyhow, why not keep an eye out for a downturn and be prepared to take swift action and purchase if there is one?
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Recession can happen, but IMO will not happen in the next one year unless a catastrophic political or war like event. (**Standard Alert:**Just a guess based on my research).
Beyond that period(one year) I sincerely wish the experts such as Mr. Shiller can tell me with authority+confidence what will happen!!
Many here think would be very mild recession, you’re thinking different 
AFAIK, 2000-2001 drop is pretty short and some neighborhoods in SV hardly feel it.
I remember when Apple stock was in the $80’s (pre-split). It most definitely went down during the crisis. I remember, because i received a blend of RSUs and options. My options strike price was $124, and they were underwater for awhile.
The whole premise (of figuring out when to buy a house- for living & not primarily invesment in Bay Area ) is timing of the next recession.
Hence, again, I’m asking members here
When will the recession(Definition: Period of general economic decline, defined usually as a contraction in the GDP for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer) happen?
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Groupthink…everyone I spoke with in 2007 said there was so much demand here prices wouldn’t go down in 2008/9 even if there was a recession.
I just want @Rent_and_Vent to know there may still be an opportunity to buy. Just keep an eye on the housing market.
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If I were you, I would buy another 4 houses of $300k at your previous city, rent here. Then retire to your previous 800k house with 4 rentals nearby.
You do not have to buy here. Your old city maybe just fine since it has demand for 800k rental at BA rent. I guess your 800k house is high end there, what’s why I suggested 4 rentals at 300k each.
If I’m not living here, I would prefer investment in a place outside of BA. BA is definitely not the only place worth of investing.
Ok, the reason I said it was a contraction was due to @Rent_and_Vent’s statement not yours. I reread your statement and it was not contradictory. You did have an argument, even though I don’t agree with that. No one can accurately predict the future and who is to say that you might or might not be right.
One warning about a wait and buy strategy though, is that if you are waiting for the next downturn to buy, price might go up by another 100% before it crashes maybe just 20%. So you might still be better off buying today…
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I can only think of 2 places that are worth buying in America other than BA: NY and LA.
Well, for me at least 
We can all agree that we are probably due for a home pricing correction, but if the Great Recession taught us anything, it would be that this region is fairly resilient. Come on, our local diversified economy could rival countries. Yes, anyone can catch a cold, even the strongest, healthiest guy on the planet. Keep in mind though that, yes, this whole area is a wonderful place to live. That will not change. I have been here all my life (over a half century). I may not have traveled the world, but from speaking to people who have and do, many have said that this region is vastly superior overall. The weather, the freedoms, the diversity of peoples and ideas, the entertainment, and the list goes on and on…We simply are not a one trick pony. Let’s put it this way, if we are down for a long time, you can bet the rest of the country and world must be in way worst shape.
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Apple stock went down during 2008 recession but number of employees was growing rapidly 2008, 2009 and headcount growth didn’t slow until last year.
I know keyword is probably… but
Why do you think so?
Only because pricing seems to be running so far ahead of income levels and who is to say interest rates will remain historically low as they have been. I am seeing more for rent signs in the Fab 7x7, so that is concerning. What if Mr. Bad Haircut in North Korea somehow, some way, develops a bottle rocket that actually goes pretty far and he has a death wish? Does our Prez exactly provide you with the confidence that yeah we are heading in the right direction 100%? Not boasting by any means, but my wife and I make decent money and you know we have rental properties to boot but as we go to market looking to buy another home to do the exchange game those price tags we are seeing in fairly average communities are not for the faint of heart.
Just because pricing are running ahead of income doesn’t mean it’s due for correction. It just means that locals are being priced out of the market. BA is a global region and people from all over the world come and buy real estate. This means that wealthy people from other part of the country and foreigners will displace local wage earners as homeowners and landlords.
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I’ll use @wuqijun 's answer here, hence quoting it. below
That could have happened AND can happen anytime.
Not this Prez, but he’s a constant at least for the next 3.5 years.