Next 10x Stock Winner


#2680

This is more than enough to start on SPLK to hold long👌 The second question is WQJ’s “will you have confidence to purchase $50k worth and hold for 5 to 10 years?”

WQJ limit is mainly stress testing concept and also to earn considerable return on investment.

If answer is yes, good to go :+1:

Third is benchmark question: if the same 50k is invested in AMZN or AAPL instead of SPLK, will it give you better return?

If the answer is “NO”, worth buying SPLK :+1::ok_hand:t2::+1::ok_hand:t2:

If “YES”, how much and is it worth considering diversification to reduce risk?

Diversification For example; During the current volatility , TSLA helped me with positive side while AAPL was way below pulling me down. Even though they are both tech side, it is worth holding both.

Even though you know all these, I just created these types of questions for information purpose.


#2681

I’m surprised about splunk. I thought it was just a logging mechanism with limited outlook. Well I could be wrong. But no will not buy.


#2682

Analyses log files :slight_smile: not make log files :joy: Think of mining business where you mine for uranium, gold and diamond :rofl:


#2683

No thank you. I have my Tsla… :smile:


#2684

So you focus mostly B2C? AAPL, TSLA, BABA, TCEHY, BIDU, FB, NFLX, GOOG :grinning:


#2685

Only fangs, ants, and bats. :rofl:


#2686

Why no AMZN and NVDA?


#2687

Missed the boat.


#2688

Now price is quite low. Why not low enough? Sound like you won’t add to them even at this low price except for TSLA.


#2689

No need to own every stock in the universe. Pick your battle.


#2690

NVDA is presently at its normal range around $160. They are like FB now. NO NVDA until we see one or two quarter results.

AMZN has potential to grow, but for now, IMO, AAPL is far better at low price.

The big difference between AMZN and AAPL are in profit margin (AAPL>AMZN) and EPS Growth (AMZN > AAPL).

Growing interest rate affects Amazon sellers and Growth Tariff issue affects them that results into lower growth rate (while maintaining Profit Margin) for AMZN.


#2691

I learnt this hard way during this volatility “focus only few winners but deeply into it”


#2692

A few means? wqj means less than 10. Yours? Mine is 2 (AAPL & index fund) since the rest are not core.


#2693

Mine.

AAPL = 20.85% - mainly for dividends
BA = 2.02% - mainly for dividends
BRK.B = 3.83%
PYPL = 1.5%
STNE = 23.25%
SYF = 18.19% - mainly for dividends
TDOC = 1.09%
TEVA = 8.8%
TSLA = 20.46%

HACAX for 401k


#2694

You really love TDOC. Still holding it after so long.
Shockingly, you bought so much STNE.


#2695

Because of Berkshire, they understand and analyze (drill down thoroughly) better than junk analysts. The price is lower than Berkshire and soon be lowest in the history of that company STNE.

Just before results, I sold 75% of TEVA (from 35% to now 8.8%) to get into AAPL and STNE.

TDOC is my favorite, like your SPLK, soon to be profit making, but slow. I hold it from $40 onwards, keep adding them.


#2696

Btw, this is the 10x thread i.e. high risk high reward stocks :slight_smile: not the safe stocks that would appreciate 1x after 10 years :slight_smile:


#2697

TDOC qualifies for high risk, loss making. So far slow, but eventually go high. They are down 29% from peak even after good growing results. There are chances this 4.3B may become 43B in 10 years. When they produce profit, price is likely go exponentially, mostly down turn resistance medical service field, growing world-wide.

For 10x, sure, look at STNE - still worth buying/adding. I will hold this little longer one or two more year for growth, then may reduce depending on stability like the way I did for TEVA, keeping the profit hold for ever.

But, it is up to you to decide.


#2698

An old article on SPLK,

Splunk Software: Hot Narrative Vs. Iron Laws Of Investing

The thing that makes this company compelling to investors and customers is revenue growth on the one hand and continuous technological innovation on the other. This dual need puts the firm on a treadmill of sorts, where the costs of attracting customers at a rapid rate is continuous innovation in product offerings (R&D expense) and a continuous increase in headcount (increasing sales force and G&A). In my view, if the company rests on its laurels, revenue will soon slow, and the game will end. Thus, in my view, there is a high degree of probability that the firm won’t achieve a “tipping point” of profitability.

Above is the reason why I didn’t invest in AMZN in early days. Of course I was wrong. Investors are willing to invest and even pay a premium for such business strategy.

That law is that the more you pay for a stream of future cash flows, the lower will be your long term return.

Common sense. However, future cash flows are estimates.

I think investors should avoid the name until we have some evidence of earnings.

When it is clear, it is also possibly missing the boat.

Before earning, author felt EV/R is too high relative to peers,
51%20PM

After earning, EV/Revenue = 8.71 :grinning:


#2699