Playing Defense in the coming slowdown - Housing


Buy your home before people figure this out. People were complaining about a small slowdown in housing, and before they knew it FAANG stocks fell 30% on average. But the good thing is, as people are delaying home purchases, rents are going up.

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Rent seems to start creeping up :grinning:

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Makes total sense. Current homeowners are fully vetted before they can get a mortgage. Home price should be close to its fair value and no housing price bubble exists.

Price can still temporarily fall but the downside is limited. You can keep your money in housing instead of losing to stock market sharks who always want to swallow your hard earned money for food

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… Spoken like someone who has been through multiple economic cycles. :+1:

As well -

  • There are many more millennials than GenX, and they are hitting prime their prime house buying years

  • It is pretty rare that the same exact thing craters 2x in a row when it comes to the impetus for a recession. Last time it was the housing bust. This time — likely trade war + too much corporate debt … but not housing bust.

  • If and when there is a dip in CA housing, go to city hall and get your property tax reassessed based on declining comps. Afterwards, prop tax increase can only go up to the extent that it is limited by prop 13. After all, prop 13 limits tax assessment INCREASES, but not DECREASES. :slight_smile:


Government is not known for generosity :joy: When market back up, you will start paying taxes based on purchase prices not the reduced price during recession. Even during 2008 to 2012, the property tax savings was minimal. Plus, most people don’t even have time to request for reduction. If you ask for reductiomn, government may not answer you for 3 years.

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It helps to have friends in city hall to guide you through the process. :slight_smile:

That’s exactly why government is bad. Government can treat people differently, favor some people and punish other people.

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I’m talking about completely legitimate processes — you just need to know how best to accomplish want you want to accomplish and do it quickly. Experienced people in city hall can guide you through the process.

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Only if you trade. No effect for buy n hold.

I was also talking about completely legitimate processes. Even if government is run with zero corruption, you still have a big loss when that government keeps grabbing more and more power from individuals. Over time, citizens would become highly incapable and everyone would rely on government to provide and manage everything.


Join the government.

I regretted that I did not work for the government to accumulate the public pension :joy:

Why? How? The city hall is called names, basically where “the stupidvisors” work. Or, they are called the Communists, by the same people who eventually will go there, with a smirk on their face, walk like a duck in order to get some “help”, from the Communists. :sweat_smile:

County assessments are handled by the County not the city. There is a formal process for reassessment. But if prices go up the tax can go back to the previous assessment plus 2% compounded per year.

If we are really going into recession I was thinking about diverting the funds from RE to stocks instead, since my second purchase (TBD) isn’t going anywhere. Can get better returns.

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Did you make quite a few offers already? Market is slow so you should be able to buy something in Daly City easily.

No. None of the houses within budget meet my criteria.

It’s funny. I don’t have much particular requirement for the house, but I could not find anything that’s such a good deal that I want to make an offer today.

Maybe many people are like both of us. There’s nothing worth buying even though the market is slow.

If I’m putting my second purchase in the bay area on hold I’m considering taking HELOC from my current property and get one elsewhere, but need to figure this one out.