Playing Defense in the coming slowdown - Housing

How many rentals do you have?

Crystal city or North Austin.

Actually Canada came to mind if Huawei is really going to drag down RE there. Tell me more about your Vancouver trip Yoda. I did some research on Canadian mortgages several years ago but IIRC you can only get a 10-year fixed or something along those lines, so HELOC would be useful in this scenario.

Canada is bad, riskier asset than US housing at this point. I think Canada may have a big housing recession like US 2008.

The best country for housing right now is US.

Good. Time to buy. RE is not the same as buying groceries, nothing can be done immediately.

How about Myanmar, Cambodia? Use your heloc to buy 10 acres in the city center.

Is Cuba worth buying? Is Argentina hopeless?

20% duty of purchase price is pretty steep :pleading_face:

It needs to be a place where I myself won’t mind living in.

I got just the place for you: Antarctica.

But no one is selling Antarctica. I like to buy 100 acres for $100.

… continues to pay dividends.

This is good news. This means there is demand at this current remt price level!

“ In San Francisco, 69 percent said yes. In San Jose, it was 71 percent, compared to 57 percent nationally. This despite these two cities being the highest and fourth highest median rents, respectively, on Zumper’s most recent monthly report.”

Not for the landlords who bought recently. SFBA is the only place in USA where it is cheaper to rent than to buy. Those who bet on future appreciation is wavering. The sentiments is changing from sure to have good appreciation to future appreciation won’t be that great to be worthwhile buying now. Good time to buy for first-time buyer? Hardly any buy2rent investors around.

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You have to have the right mindset with real estate investing. RE and stocks are not 100% fungible. Using RE as a short term tool to buy and sell is suboptimal. Transaction costs are high, and relying purely on market-momentum to lock in gains is akin to gambling.

Buying property to rely on future appreciation in a short or medium term time horizon in the Bay Area to make $ is a risky game.

Buying property — looking at it as a business to run — using depreciation as a way to enjoy nearly tax-free dividends (rents) and using “future appreciation” (quotes intentional) as a way to preserve and slowly growth wealth and transfer that to future generations on a stepped up tax basis — that is the foundation upon which generational wealth is preserved and transferred.

How bad is buying a $800k house in Fremont and getting $3200 rent per month? If you consider principal pay down, you are nearly even.

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That’s a ~3.6% cap rate, before calculating the effects of tax savings.
People often forget that its what you take home after the tax man does his thing — not before — that really matters.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4676-Wheeler-Dr-Fremont-CA-94538/25044842_zpid/

Theoretical :grinning:

Even if you assume 0 vacancy, after taking property tax into consideration (hopefully your biggest expense), you are looking at a gross rent of $30,000 ($38,400 before property tax) against $800,000. If your mortgage rate is 4.5% and a 80% LTV, your gross rent only covers your mortgage interest. It means on a cashflow basis you will be out principle, insurance, repairs, vacancies, etc…

I wonder if that’s why renters think they’re getting a good deal. Buying would be even more expensive.

Yeah that’s tough.

$3200 / month on a 800K property?
You can even get that in Nob Hill / Russian Hill in SF. And I don’t think Fremont = SF.