Population Projection 2060

State Department of Finance just released a demographic projection. Number geeks can download the source data to crunch their own numbers. Here’s the link:

http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/projections/

Some highlights:

CA the whole state: 39M in 2015 to 51M in 2060 (31% increase).
Alameda Co: 1.6M to 2.3M (44% increase).
SF: 863K to 1.2M (39% increase).
Santa Clara Co: 1.9M to 2.8M (47% increase).
San Mateo Co: 764K to 938K (23% increase).
Santa Cruz Co: 275K to 338K (23% increase).
Sacramento Co: 1.5M to 2.3M (53% increase). :fire: :fire: :fire:

The highest growth is at Yolo county at 72% growth from 213K to 366K. But for counties with 1M+ population today the top 3 highest growth are Riverside, San Bernardino and Sacramento. Santa Clara at 47% is pretty impressive too.

In terms of ethnicity, interestingly in SF whites has the highest growth rate, even higher than Hispanics. In 2060, Asians will be the largest group in Santa Clara Co.

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I wonder how accurate their predictions made 30-40 years ago were.

Estimates, projections or forecasts can not be accurate as future is always unpredictable ! If they achieve 90% accuracy, that is great !!

California and the BA populations have doubled in 50 years…Best guess at 100k increase per year, BA population will be 3m higher in 30 years…100k people need 30k more housing units per year, maybe 5-10k per year are getting built, 90% condos and multi family apartments…jackpot for higher prices

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I have a hard time justifying the new SFH as SFH. Yes, the wall isn’t touching your neighbor, but it might as well be. There’s zero yard and zero privacy.

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Buy the largest lot you can afford…“land, they are not building anymore of it”

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I agree. That was my plan before I decided to move. I’ll use that strategy in Seattle. There’s similar natural boundaries that limit the amount of land within commutable distance. They aren’t building new SFH within a 30 min commute.