Predictions for Sunnyvale, Cupertino

I am wondering if it still makes sense to hold on to SBay investment properties? Or does it make more sense to sell SBay rentals and buy Fremont rentals via 1031 exchange?

No, South Bay more valuable than Fremont.


But Fremont has better cash flow. Are you essentially betting that SBay will continue to have higher rate of appreciation than Fremont?

Refer to the price of my rental SFH as given by zillow. Price began to appreciate from 2012 and then in 2017, accelerated after the 2016 pause. The speed of climb starting from 2017 is faster than from 2012.


Then why not Antioch which has the best cash flow? When you buy a trophy property you can’t think about cash flow too much. All South Bay properties except ESJ are trophy property now.

There is an alternative to 1031. Re-finance some money out of the SV house to purchase in higher cash flow neighborhoods such as East Bay or Austin :grinning: I have thought about this and myo has opened a thread on this possibility for discussion.

Fremont is still commutable to major tech employers while I consider Antioch an exurb and hence more prone to downward pricing pressure in a recession. Fremont I believe will perform better in next recession compared to the previous recession.

What’s your definition of a trophy property?
Also, would you consider Sunnyvale and Santa Clara north of El Camino Real trophy properties?


I think anything over $1M qualifies. Which means a lot of fremont homes also qualify. But why not buy in South Bay if your budget is 1M? Closer commute than fremont for sure.

I have thought about it but would hate to lose the low fixed rate I have on SBay rental by refinancing now.

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I believe the average commute time from Fremont to major tech companies is approaching SBay good school areas if you consider all major tech players between San Mateo and San Jose. And SF commute is actually easier from Fremont than SBay.

Actually isn’t fremont where Tesla is? If Tesla takes off big time then maybe it does make sense to buy Fremont.

Fremont location wise is much more commutable than willow glen/cambrian park etc. Fremont covers sf, peninsula and sbay.

Not near anything and not far from anything. I really think fremont/Newark will have a lot of room to appreciate and more desirable location if more companies open offices like fb and Tesla in ardenwood.


What do you think about Union city esp the good elementary schools bordering ardenwood?

They are already going above 1M. Not a lot of discount from ardenwood. Yes good area but high school sucks I believe.

Other theme i see lately is bad schools appreciate faster % wise because of the affordability.

Actually I own Sbay properties but also have a stake in Tesla. @RealEstatebull lives in fremont. Maybe we should listen to an outsiders opinion with this.


My hunch is that when we see less desirable neighborhoods appreciating faster than more desirable neighborhoods, it signifies the last leg of the bull run. Just a hunch, no real data to support at this time. Does this resonate with anyone else here?


I believe insiders will have better opinion given RE is local. If you look at this question from the perspective of where would you invest now if you had say $2M but pick only one location - SBay vs Fremont, it should take away any influence of your current investments :wink:

To me it shows affordability is poor+FOMO.
House prices will go down as a result of local layoffs+local economic downturn.

Well, then the last leg should be Antioch. We are a long way from there :slight_smile:

$2M I would pick 95129 or 94043.

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