I would say if everything dropped 25% then you would know for sure it’s a decline. You can’t look for signs in the South Bay because this would be the last place for a price drop. Look at the East Bay auctions where the cheapest homes are being sold. Right now there are so little inventory and so many hungry bidders that it is worse than buying it off the MLS. Once you see excess inventory and investors having trouble absorbing all the foreclosures then you know the recession is upon us.
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Location, re-modeling, staging, price… matters. This house has been sitting for a long time, now reduce price.
There are some folks who are willing to pay for extremely tasteful re-modeling and staging. Those are the ones that sold fast and make headlines, and we shouldn’t compare normal house with that kind of house.
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I second wuqijun sentiment, we are not at nearing top. Market has come back to normal supply and demand stage. I see lot of homes on market and lot of homes are going out with offer.
Since the beginning of 2017, I bid almost 4 or 5 homes, range 1.25M to 1.75M, everything I bid above 100k on list price, lost all ! When I gave 30% down payment, competitors were giving at 60% or 70% down payment. I am simply beaten by a lot of cash around bay area.
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Ive noticed that Los Altos house. The decor is just too loud and garish - but I guess all that can be changed.
Sorry but 30% in cash doesn’t cut it. I’ve had friends say that bidding 150k over asking is something they all consider. Last year, I was outbid on a house by 10k and the winner brought 70% cash to the table i.e about 1.1 million.
Yes indeed, and I would like to add that we are actually just entering the low supply high demand stage. This stage alone might take several years! Then we will be at the normal supply and demand stage, which might take another several years. Then we will enter the high supply low demand stage, which will take another couple years until we realized that it’s an actual recession. But that would probably be at least a decade away…
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I think housing prices will drop for the following reasons:
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many ppl who bought homes in the last few years are leveraged a lot. i have one close friend who moved here and makes good money and he recently bought a home in los altos for slightly over $3m. he said that he’s basically house poor now but also said that he knows many others in the same predicament as him…not much savings but they own an expensive home with a huge mortgage.
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the stock market has been a strong bull market since 2009 (a good 8 years). that’s almost unheard of to go that long without a correction of at least 20%. i think it’s time for a correction…as early as now and as late at 2 years from now (i just don’t see this bull market sustaining for another 2 years (10 years total).
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many families need dual income just to barely make ends meet and pay their high mortgages. and again, they don’t have massive savings (a few months at most). many make over 50% of their income in the form of bonuses and stock (i know that i certainly do).
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so a correction in the market will result in pain…pay will be reduced, families are already stretched thin, etc. if heaven forbid a job is lost then it gets really tough and you’re in the red every month. with not much savings…that only lasts a few months before you start missing payments, etc.
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within a year, you start seeing more and more foreclosures. pretty soon, you get massive drops in housing prices.
…so i’m going to put my money where i mouth is. i think i’m going to rent instead of buy when / if i move here this summer.
Thought we have been in this ‘low supply high demand’ since 2013, with inventory keeps dropping. And many bears/ renters are changed/ changing to bulls/ buyers, ask Terri… about to buy. So while house prices keep increasing, rents are not. People no longer see it worthwhile to rent because house price keeps increasing. Rent looks good at the point of analysis, few years later, buy is better… so many have turned into buyer mentality. It is approaching extreme, just don’t know when but I doubt is a decade away.
So agree more with Jil, approaching normal demand and supply, not ‘low supply high demand’.
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Because you are only looking at the South Bay. In the East Bay where the lower middle class resides, rents are increasing like no tomorrow. And inventory has dropped to an all time low. Definitely, this is low supply high demand stage. Never look at the South Bay for any kind of signs. Case in point: did housing prices in Cupertino dropped at all during the severe downturn of 2008-2011?
13 homes as of Mar 21
[quote=“wuqijun, post:49, topic:1911”]…In the East Bay where the lower middle class resides, rents are increasing like no tomorrow. And inventory has dropped to an all time low. Definitely, this is low supply high demand stage.
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Are you referring to rental property or houses for sale?
Btw, this thread is about Cupertino, Sunnyvale i.e. SV, why suddenly talk about East Bay?
I’m referring to everything. You can’t even find a well priced condo to buy anymore in Concord. I will need to start looking in Vallejo now, where there’s still plenty of supply and way less competition. Rents have gone up at least 50% over the pass couple years.
And it will go up by 50% again over the few years?
Definitely. maybe not in 2 years but I would say in 5 years.
In fact, some market watchers noted that when everyone is bullish, that’s usually a sign that the market could be due for a drop. Too much of a good thing cannot last.
“We are currently experiencing multi-decade high extremes of optimism, and we view this euphoria as a warning sign,” said Brad Lamensdorf, founder of research firm LMTR, in a report Tuesday.
RE in SFBA is tied to the stock market. I have checked the listing prices of a few cities, prices move up since stock market roars to life in mid 2016, drop a little approaching POTUS election and then surge to a new ATH. So, watch the stock market. It rolls over today.
I was listening to the radio the other day and the commentator was arguing about how the bull market clock doesn’t start ticking until it overtakes the previous bull market’s high. In his eyes the bull market really just started…
look @ this one. All schools are bad… Good house though.
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I don’t understand why Fremont High’s score is much lower than other FUHSD schools.
They often shuffle teachers including Principle and curriculum should be same.
Housing price over there is also very high.
wow. 320k over asking. If I were renting out the in-law unit I would not give them the entire backyard as in this house.
North Sunnyvale schools feed into Fremont High , thats why the score is low.