Predictions for Sunnyvale, Cupertino


#905

that is why we need to look at y/o/y and not q/o/q.

Peter Thiel doesn’t think so. He thinks longer term will be distributed because of high cost of operating in SFBA and too much groupthink.


#906

I like to mess with people every now and then :slight_smile:


#907

Absolutely. Inflation is your best friend.


#908

People like to think about tech as a zero sum game. Just because tech grows elsewhere does not mean that Bay Area has to shrink or even stop growing.


#909

You’re insulting Peter Thiel and the one who quote him. Guys like Peter Thiel thinks deeply.


#910

Smart guy that I respect. But I think he’s wrong.


#911

You should put that in the spreadsheet every time you update the post, so we can graph it. Don’t we all love the graphs? :slight_smile:


#912

Imagine if we had graphed the stock market in the last few years, and shorted it every time it was slow for two months. How are these sales numbers any different?


#913

Without seeing any trend, each post doesn’t have any values unless you remember all the previous data. I believe we can have more interesting discussion that way. I believe @hanera posted these numbers even before slow down in last two months.


#914

A trend guy :slight_smile: Good to know. Are you a SWE?


#915

It’s true that @hanera has been posting these numbers from before. I am referring to trends like in year 2016 from May to November which was clearly downward for housing prices in the bay area. We know how the future turned out after that. Prices are up at least 20% even in areas like Cupertino from then on. Higher in places like Santa Clara. What I am saying is that just as with stocks, price trends tell you what’s happening now; they don’t explain what will happen in future. For that you need to analyze and come up with valid reasons. Otherwise you may be missing out a temporary buying opportunity. I don’t see any fundamental reasons for the slow down other than buyer fatigue, or as one realtor friend told me that most buyers are on vacation during this time in the bay area. I will be very interested in knowing any other explanations our seasoned members may have though.


#916

Buyers vacation time i think is a bit of a BS. I also think this is a great buying opportunity, and some homes have sold at a deep discount (Compared to their comps). Might be perfect time, indeed.


#917

What makes you so sure that this is a perfect buying opportunity?


#918

Experience :slight_smile:


#919

:smile: I thought you are one of the youngest ones here.


#920

Heh, here are things i know:

  1. Interest rates rose up quite a bit. on a 2M$ home, 0.5% increase is additional 10K, and the salt deduction is limited. Combine that with less mortgage interest deduction (750K) and you’ll see.
  2. People somewhat freaked out about stock market volatility, some of them rushed into market early in the year. Now less so. See Jil as an example.
  3. Asian buyers are not around, at least i don’t see a lot of cash offers - still see them somewhat, but not a lot.
  4. I checked with my agent, and I know about 4 more people who were looking to buy for > 1 yr, all ended up buying this month. Coincidence? Maybe they are the biggest fools in the bigger fool theory, but overbidding/bidding wars aren’t happening as severe as before.
  5. Somehow, first time in years, I started houses coming “back” to market. Probably due to not getting financing, maybe banks don’t buy inflated values anymore.

The market is probably a bit in the “value is not in low end places” mode. It used to be that SVL and MTV rose up in prices more so than PA. Now compared to these two, PA seems like a value, so PA still sells.

I wouldn’t mind market going down a bit, though, i am young, and in accumulation mode. I want to buy all the houses :slight_smile:


#921

Definitely is a soft spot between $1.8m and $3m
Or you can buy in the same house in the Sacramento MSA for $4-800k and keep your MTV apartment.


#922

Haha, yea. SWE couple.

Not disagreeing here. I was curious to see how trend of Homestead high different from BA in general. 94087 has more appreciation than other area in Bay Area in last 12 months.


#923

Actually 0.5% increase is an additional 7K from what I remember. Also, I never had SALT deduction because of AMT (which almost all of us were in until 2017). In fact this year I get to take 10K extra deduction thanks to the new tax law. That kind of offsets the loss of mortgage interest deduction. So really only the 7K per year extra which is about 600 dollars per month.


#924

Right, i was thinking 2M loan.
Either way, all these added up. I think something also is going on wtih financing, but not sure what. I saw a lot of houses go contingent, then come back to market. Maybe they don’t appraise as much?