Price guesses - Mountain View Edition


#122

Downturns are buying opportunities. I saw one in 1981, 1991, 2001, 2008. 2008 was the worst. Caused by loose lending regs. Won’t happen again. The rest were at most 20% and lasted 2 years . . 1991 lasted to 1996. Followed by the biggest boom ever till now.


#123

I saw one in 1981, 1991, 2001, 2008.

So every 10 year.
about time :slight_smile:


#124

Messing with you…


#125

Yeah I thought that last year. But market is up. I sold 3 years too early in 2015. Looks like the next downturn will be in 2021. Maybe if a progressive like Kamala Harris gets elected President. But you miss another 20 % appreciation. I believe in the ten year rule. But Greenspan over heated the market and caused the expected 2011 recession to happen early…


#126

Agreed! I believe the market will not drop significantly until 2020/2021. All the indicators point to a strong economy. People moving into the BA and forming households faster than they can build houses. You’re also seeing a bunch of millennials starting to get married and having kids. If you wait until 2020/2021, the prices may not drop lower than today’s prices. The interest rate may also be higher. If you are buying for your primary, you need to get in ASAP.

Right now, how many people wished they had bought in 2007 at the peak? The prices have more than doubled since then. It’s always a peak until there’s new peak.


#127

Still puzzled with these two:


The second one “over sold” to a marginal buyer, and I think first one is basically hopign for the same miracle.


#128

Sure, there is correction coming, sooner or later. But the issue is that between corrections, prices are going up 8-15-20% per year for 10 years. Then during the downturn, prices might drop 10-20% for the entire correction. So correction only wipes out maybe 1 or 2 years of increase.

Those who bought still came out way ahead. Those who are waiting or timing the market will more likely than not lose out.


#129

The prices already dropped 10% in about a month. You should expecte 20-30 at the recession at the very least. Not to counterpoint you, though, i believe it.


#130

This is also one reason not to believe redfin estimates :slight_smile: $2,232,577 vs $2,879,620


#132

Listing prices have dropped; that does not mean that the sale price has dropped. Inventory is holding steady at less than one month supply. New listings will start going down soon as the school season starts.

A building contractor that I know mentioned that steel and lumber costs have gone up significantly (almost 70%) in the last few months due to tariffs. Labor costs are also increasing rapidly. This is putting a dampening effect on new construction. Looks like Trump is making sure that his property prices will keep going up.

Santa Clara country with a population of 2 million had just 12,000 single family home sales in the last 12 months. Just to put that into perspective, Google alone increased its head count by 11,000 in the last year. That’s the big picture of bay area real estate. Watching a few neighborhoods week over week will not give you the right picture.


#133

Listing price has dropped 10% for similar properties? Where?


#134

Listing prices were always low, there’s actually no change in that.


#135

In Fremont, where I am looking listing prices are being reduced to attract more bids. But sale prices have been steadily going up.


#136

I acknowledge the real estate issues started showing and this is not an end.

I also see both multiple home list prices drop, flood of inventory and home stays too long (more than 21 days). It can be temporary or permanent depending on how Nasdaq/S&P drops further.

If there is 20-30% drop in market, we will definitely have issues with real estate.


#137

It depends on how bad is the trade war started by Trump.
Is it just a negotiation technique or he has pushed too far and a real trade war ensues.


#138

Trump will use this as an opportunity to get next term. Powell will keep rate increasing.

IMO, Trump won’t yield and trade wars will continue and hit both economies.

After a dip cycle, we may get growth and bull run. Wait for an opportunity to buy at dips!!

Who knows? We may be in the correction territory already…,


#139

They are already predicting rate cuts and QE. Even if there is a slowdown they don’t want it to last long. :slight_smile: May be trade wars are just an excuse to continue low rates and QE. Trump won’t get reelected if there is a recession.


#140

At this stage, Barron post is speculative and not authentic from FED. They just want to write some contrary post so that everyone eagerly read it. It is just that.

Next four rate hike is very likely. Economy sags then to increase jobless to 4.5% ( but likely go to 5 or 6) and then slowly recover. The impact must be less, but no one really knows when and how much !


#141

I understand what you are saying. But if you see from the point of view of a president who is trying to get reelected in 2 years, is economic slowdown a desirable thing? Don’t you think he will do his best to avoid that? Especially since he takes lot of pride in how well the economy and the stock market are doing after he took over.


#142

He will blame obama for that, dont worry :slight_smile: