The COVID darling has been taking a hit since this summer. With the latest drop, what do we think, is it BTFD or don’t catch the falling knife?
Here’s the bull thesis that was posted by one of the believers after last drop.
https://octahedron.app.box.com/s/pc4vpjt4cjcdo4xako2hg305a3v4ahal
I didn’t watch the video. PTON is in the hardware business, so should be valued as such… it has pretended to be in the software business. Hardware manufacturing business is essentially a supply chain business, if you can’t manage the supply chain well, you shouldn’t be in the business.
They are projecting much less revenue now. I don’t think it’s much of a growth story anymore.
PTON rose because people saw it as a subscription business, not a hardware business. I believe current threat it the reopening of Gyms and people wanting more in-person socialization.
For PTON to succeed, TAM for Gyms will have to shrink permanently.
Planet fitness said their membership levels are almost back to pre-pandemic levels. They announced that around he same time PTON lowered their revenue forecast by $1B. They bought the leading maker of cardio equipment for gyms for less than $500M. The difference in valuation is staggering.
Peloton stock is now under $10. Market Cap $3b… headed towards bankruptcy
“ Peloton’s staff became so bloated, the former engineer said, it felt as if the company was hiring as a form of “empire building” that didn’t “feel based in real need.” One former employee said there wasn’t enough work to stay busy and there was nothing to do half the time.”