After 10 year bull run and 300% rise, 4x faster than wages and economy, a correction is normal and expected. Anyone spinning theories that it won’t happen is simply delusional.
Simple math: mortgage rate now is higher than 2019. Real wages are same or lower than 2019. Inventory is approaching 2019 levels. Any rational person would conclude that home prices cannot be greater than 2019. And btw 2019 prices were already in bubble territory after 7 years of Fed induced appreciation.
Lower housing cost would be the best thing to happen to the US and Fed think tanks know this. Citizens spending 50% of their income on housing is preposterous for any economy.
Wrong example. Personal income tax rate in Singapore is one of the lowest in the world.
US has 50% tax rate in CA. Plus sales tax, county tax, city tax, green tax, property tax, …
Does he anywhere actually show data that prices follow volumes? They state it. They talk about volumes falling. There’s a lot of graphs. If he wanted to make a valid point, there should be graphs that show both volume and price. Maybe even calculate the correlation. I said months ago volumes would drop, because far fewer people will be willing to sell. Who wants to sell a home with a mortgage under 3% then buy with a mortgage over 5%? We’re not talking stocks where people can sell and don’t need to own. People have to live somewhere, and rents are high with low vacancy rates.
A friend of mine has a condo to rent off Rengsdorf. He’s having trouble finding a renter. It seems cheap to me though it’s a bit small and dated and of course I’m no longer in the middle of things re: Bay Area markets.
It’s a nice house. This kind of spanish mission style architecture has been h.o.t. over the last few years in san mateo county. Wonderful neighborhood but corner lot so maybe a bit busy. Still easily worth >4 a few months ago.
We are heading back to 75 bp rate hike per Fed Rate Monitor Tool and stocks are crashing down already. US stocks are riding in thin air and are on life support by Fed. Lets see how long Fed continues to debase USD to support them and cause more inflation.
Don’t jump into conclusion. This + next week would tell us whether we have a bear market rally or a new bull market from Jun 16. Btw, seasonally, stock market peaks in Aug. Bad patch in Sep/ Oct.
Last check, other than a few isolated cases of deeply discounted sale, I didn’t see much drop in RE prices. So I am still waiting… to buy a great deal… I am an impatient guy, waiting till Q1 seems like a long wait.
Exactly. These guys are speculating that Fed would do that instead of purely interpreting EW. I am interpreting as it, and let the price action tells me to change. I am not sure you want to call them “correct” if it turns out to be zigzag strictly from EW interpretation PoV.
Btw, correct or wrong is not quite right description.
Preferred vs alternate.
As it: Preferred should be impulse, alternate should be zigzag.
Guessing Fed action become: Preferred is zigzag, alternate is impulse.
inventory.
deal. Caveat: Didn’t look at the interior or the location.