Recession Signals: Home Sales Trend Lower in All Four Regions

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/housing-market-perspectives/2019/recession-signals-home-sales-lower

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Single-family home sales are a reliable indicator of housing market strength.
  • New- and existing-home sales rates have declined in all four census regions.
  • Based on previous cycles, the recent downturn in U.S. home sales is consistent with a broader economic slowdown in the near term.

Near term is how long?
See many hiring signs :innocent:

Near term is before 2020’s election. Trump will exert maximum pressure on Fed to lower rate. Never mind it’s his trade war that tips America into recession.

Federal Reserve researchers say recession is coming in late 2019 to early 2020. We have 6-9 months. However, stock market just made new highs, should everyone sell stocks tomorrow?

indicators remained consistent with the possibility of a late 2019 or early 2020 recession.2

3 more good months :innocent:

Waiting for FB to make a new ATH.

How many months ahead do you need to sell stocks before the recession?

3-6 months.

Stocks don’t necessarily follow the real economy. If the Fed cut rates aggressively and trade war with China ends economy will soar once again. Stock market may be seeing around the corner towards the eventual recovery.

Seems the consensus is that if we had a recession it will be short and shallow. :crossed_fingers: