I’ve actually quoted reputable sources. You have none and instead just try to discredit everting I said.
I never said anything about Tesla or meme stocks.
It is a colossal waste of my time to join the forum.
Then go away. I am the best qualified RE investor on this forum. If you can’t benefit from my 50 years of experience and 13 years on this forum, go find a stock promoter than echoes your thoughts. But don’t try to school me on RE investing .
At the minimum I’d say there is no hurry to buy RE. Price is still going down and interests rate high. I don’t think people will regret not buying in the Bay right now. Things could change in a year or two of course.
All the good things about home ownership: free to do whatever to it, the warm and fuzzy pride of ownership, the stability, they are all true. But like all nice things, they have a price tag on them. It’s a question whether one wants to pay for those niceties. Right now their prices are very high.
If you just look at it from an investment point of view, buying real estate in the Bay Area right now doesn’t strike me as particular sound, compared to other financial assets. But of course if you have a psychological need to own your home, that’s beyond the scope of this thread.
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In my opinion, since the title of this thread is rent-vs-buy, then we are comparing buying a primary residence vs not buy (invest in other means). In this case you cannot really look at it from a pure investment point of view. A pure investment comparison would involve buying an investment property and renting it out, in which case I agree that it may not be wise to rush to buy a 1.8M investment property now.
But buying a primary residence is different. It typically means you are buying a place you like and you want to live in it long term. It typically means you are getting an upgrade in quality of life vs. renting another place. We are using a 1.8M house and not a cheap condo as an example here as a cheap condo might make the number comparison look different. These are the things you can’t ignore in this rent-vs-buy debate. If someone does not appreciate and enjoy home ownership and treats it as a pure financial vehicle then of course it makes no sense to buy now as the market appears to be heading lower, but who knows whether the stock market might drop even more than the housing market would.
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Possibly true. But trolling stock touts are just stirring it up.
Renters should just rent. But trying to convince others that home ownership is a bad idea is a waste of time.
We went through the bear trolls 13 years ago. They were all wrong. I think the current guy is just trying to get validation. In reality there’s too many reasons that RE prices will go up in the long run. Meanwhile he should rent. Of course his stock portfolio is also precarious.
Different people value “stability” and “pride of ownership” differently. The only objective thing one can discuss is the financial angle. Some people are very into gardening for example. For them having a piece of land to call their own is super important. For others even mowing their lawn once a week is too much to ask.
5-10 years ago buying RE in the Bay was a no-brainer. No matter which angle you looked at it, buying made sense. Now I feel it’s not as clear cut.
I still want to own my home though. But I know I paid a financial price for that decision.
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Very true. For primary, focus on your needs / life styles and if you can afford it go for it without waiting. Mortage does help with a huge leverage – on the long run, you will be successful…
The rent vs buy thing is all about confidence in the future. Obviously personal risk tolerance, employment, business and family issues are the most important. Then it comes to macro issues. The economy, inflation, future economic projections. There is a special place in hell for people living only in the macro world. You can’t do anything about it and you can’t forecast it
But I will give my macro perspective. Employment is near the all time highs. Housing demand is high. 150m people under 40 need more housing as family formations will keep increasing. Housing starts are at near record lows. Inventory is historically low. Construction and development costs keep going up faster than inflation. Inflation is moderating. Mortgage rates are coming down. The economy is booming. The stock market is forming a bottom. So no matter what the gloom and doomers say the future is bright… especially if you have a 20 year time horizon like our new stock touting friend suggests.
So now that everyone says it’s a bad time to buy. It may actually be the best time to buy. Very few buyers and a lot of DDDs that have to sell. Like the example given. Offer the flipper $1.5m on his $1.8m ask.
He paid $1.4m. Put in $100k in upgrades. So he looses a bit but is out from under a rental he doesn’t want and can go flip another deal. Flippers are the most vulnerable sellers right now. They don’t want to hold inventory and are reluctant landlords.
Maybe in February, if it hasn’t rented, he might take an even lower offer.
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In CA 
In Austin, mostly iBuyers and developers. They like to play games, bargains quite often are not.
What is an ibuyer?
Eg. OfferPad.
I get offers all the time from people like offerpad. Does anyone actually sell to these lowballers? Maybe it’s a numbers game?
Like hitting on every girl in the bar hoping that one will desperately except your offer.
The goal is to find desperate/uninformed sellers to at least start discussing a lowball offer.
Same as folks trying the doors on every parked car in the middle of the night. There are always some. Just need to find them.
If the ibuyers underpaid they would all be swimming in big profits. Instead they all suffer huge losses and Zillow famously shut their iBuyer operation down cold turkey.
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Initially all iBuyers underpaid for properties. Zillow gets greedy and overpays. Rest still underpay. When they sell, initial asking is 20% higher than market. Make good profit. It works till it didn’t. Now even if they reduce price by 30% from initial asking, may not be losing money.
Not true, most pandemic era iBuyers are suffering. Opendoor, Zillow, Offerpad, Redfin Now, … long list. As rates rise and prices fall they will only suffer more. Compared to local builders and flippers, big corporate iBuyers always pay more, both in purchase price as well as remodeling costs.
20 year high?!
5% down only? Screwed big time by high mortgage rate.