If history is going to rhyme, usually the neighborhoods outside the fortress (near good schools + big employers) are the one who get hit first and hardest. Prices in fortress are usually quite stable.
Bingo! That’s why I stay away from the fringes and outskirts of the Bay. Sooner or later, rough weather is going to come and the job centers have better covering than other areas do. It is all about the jobs, people…
Can people provide a list please of the fortresses in Bay Area?
Rough weather came to my hood - but this place, a few hundred yards from an active landslide that brought Anna Eschoo, Jerry Hill, and Don Horsley among others out for a dog-and-pony show last Sunday went pending fast anyway. Not that I’d recommend a purchase out here for financial reasons - it’s a lifestyle, not a way to get rich. We are, in fact, the last to zoom and first to crash - and crash hard - in any real estate market. I bought my place for someone who held it for for 23 years and barely broke even.
It’s great to publish predictions. Is there any reason we should believe this one? Does the author have a track record of being right?
Boundary of fortress (referring to South Bay) changes slightly now and then, at this moment, should be:
Los Altos Hills
West San Jose (95129, 95130)
West Sunnyvale (94087)
Los Gatos used to be part of the fortress, recent years lose favor, prices there appreciate by less than 50% from bottom, whereas those in Fortress appreciates nearly 100%.
No doubt, readily waiting ! By that time, hoping that I will be prepared for cash offer (as the rates may be higher than now) !
Not an authority on the subject, but when the last chit hit the fan, I was in Visalia CA. People from the BA flew over there following the myth of “in 6 months I will double my money”. I used beautiful, bigly words to tell them they had won the lotto, rent, keep your money, you name de warning or advise, they went dumb on me. Some pocketed $300K or more and were like drunken sailor looking for another drink of Kool Aid.
So, the outskirts of any city/county are the ones where most people will end up buying at the last moment, with enough time to settle down, then they start to notice that in every corner a for sale sign is posted. This, as occurred last time, ends up in the very high fortresses which have rich occupants that can sustain the slaughter for awhile. But eventually, they will jump ship. It’s a strategic move, allowed by law, if there are any in place when anything awful happens.
What you guys, as investors or landlords need to realize is if the numbers of people leaving your hood are lower than the incoming people. If technology can keep hiring people, outpacing the bleeding, and they are coming here to reach the American dream, then you won’t be in trouble.
If I mentioned the outskirts, it’s because as owners at that time, renters will do the same today. Supply and demand will hurt some landlords but benefit greater number of renters, or wannabe buyers. They will fly away from expensive places (given deportations are in place) to end up in San Jose, Oakland or farther North and those empty nests in SF or any other expensive place will have to find new tenants, which may be renting affordable places in the places aforementioned, leaving you with the cat in the sack.
I just know, that the law of numbers, the law of supply and demand supersedes any prediction.
Keep your eyes on the ball. Yesterday, some exemplary situations were narrating a tell tale of something worse to come. I hope not, I’d like to be positive, but after seeing and hearing the Hispanic community, my community what’s going on, ain’t good and the point is that we all are, and we all will be in the same boat. Believe me.
So restrictive… people not living in those zips will be crying themselves a river.
These fortresses will keep on expanding, conquering new territories and annexing them into the new fortress. Remember, silicon valley used to be nothing but farm land.
If you can identify the next fortress-to-be and buy ahead of the crowd, you can be filthy rich.
This is what I am trying to identify, the boundary expands slowly.
Like Cambrian Park, San Jose?
Yes, Cambrian ( next to Xilinx ) and Almaden valley are already desirable places, but they have bigger lots, good school and cheaper than these fortress area, but commute hassle is there !
What is your point? Check out property prices in London proper and outskirts, big difference !!! What buying house describe may not happen and what happen in London vs outskirts may happen here… prices keep shooting up in fortress, whereas outskirts may even decline… time will reveal which is the truth.
Triple stochastic wavelet momentum analysis, bro.
Doing that now.
The prediction could be true: rent decline of 8% in SF and 5% in SJ.
The headline is misleading. Is 8% decline a “steep” decline in 4 years?
The 20% rent increase in Sac is a little surprising. But that’s only $220 increase over 4 years. It could happen as well. But should we rush to buy Sac? I’m not convinced
No need to rush to Sacramento… there’s always Antioch in the East Bay. Much closer!