This is what I am trying to identify, the boundary expands slowly.
Like Cambrian Park, San Jose?
Yes, Cambrian ( next to Xilinx ) and Almaden valley are already desirable places, but they have bigger lots, good school and cheaper than these fortress area, but commute hassle is there !
What is your point? Check out property prices in London proper and outskirts, big difference !!! What buying house describe may not happen and what happen in London vs outskirts may happen here… prices keep shooting up in fortress, whereas outskirts may even decline… time will reveal which is the truth.
Triple stochastic wavelet momentum analysis, bro.
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Doing that now. 
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The prediction could be true: rent decline of 8% in SF and 5% in SJ.
The headline is misleading. Is 8% decline a “steep” decline in 4 years?
The 20% rent increase in Sac is a little surprising. But that’s only $220 increase over 4 years. It could happen as well. But should we rush to buy Sac? I’m not convinced
No need to rush to Sacramento… there’s always Antioch in the East Bay. Much closer!
The number of renters keep growing due to the reluctance of millienials to buy, Plus a quarter to a third are still living at home…Obama deported 3 million illegal aliens…Trump is threatening to deport 2 milllion…But the reality is 25 million of the 83 million millienials are still living with their parents and construction is not keeping up with demand…Sure BA rents are dropping, but that is because they are too high, not because of a drop in demand or increase in supply. .Tenants are merely doubing up or commuting farther…Watch the unemployment rate, that is key…Plus how many illegals can afford BA rents anyway…I think their exit will only affect a small part of the market. .
Antioch houses were snapped up by investors. …Foreclosure is no longer a threat there.
Yes in fact I saw more than 50 people at the foreclosure auction the other day chasing after 2 houses. Too much demand not enough supply.
I haven’t been to Antioch, but many people say it’s the future ghetto since many bad guys are leaving Oakland/SF and head to Antioch. It’s becoming a rental city
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Exactly correct! And in a economic downturn, those foreclosure signs will be dusted off first in places like Antioch. Things don’t change…
Those Antioch landlords are well finaniced…Most have a ton on equity and paid cash…
That may be, but still those outlying areas will feel it much more than job centers like SF. Come on, even in the Great Recession SF market rebounded rather quickly did it not? We personally didn’t feel a thing quite honestly through all that with our rentals in SF…
Investors buy only when price is low and attractive. They always find locations such as Stockton, Sacramento, Oakland and Antioch.
I think the other way ! The reason for foreclosure are job loss, poor earning, less down payment areas…etc
At good times, when market is doing great, buy in those places where sfdragonboy has not listed or where cash offers are high. Say sunnyvale, mountainview…all bay area locations.
At worst period, say when market crashed and no one wants to offer for any home, buy in those location where sfdragonboy has listed.
This way your investment money is protected.
I agree with Jil.
I am not going to call some investors idiots, as they call the supervisors, but there were and still there are idiot investors not getting it. If I ever had any money, given we had a recession or something like that, I would start to round up the deals in cities away from the job centers and work my way in.
Dang name calling. I can’t get away from it.
We are comparing Antioch to Sacramento. We are not comparing Antioch to San Francisco. To me, Antioch and Sacramento are on the same boat. But Antioch is a better investment because it is much closer and easier to handle. I refuse to drive more than a hundred miles every time I wish to buy a house. This is strictly in terms of convenience.
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Me too, otherwise, I would have purchased at Sac. Antioch is also too long drive, I prefer well within 40-50 miles range.
Even in this case, I do not prefer Antioch, but we can go for Hayward side or condos like this
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/39224-Guardino-Dr-94538/unit-308/home/22810847
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Clara/980-Kiely-Blvd-95051/unit-116/home/1182107
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/804-Catkin-Ct-95128/home/12180204
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Bruno/3331-Shelter-Creek-Ln-94066/home/956712
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