Market continues to risk off and goes defensive.



That’s counter-intuitive if rates are going higher. Higher rates makes the dividend yields less attractive. I follow muni bond rates. There used to be muni bond funds that’d pay a higher rate than mortgage rates. You could literally cash out refi and make a profit off the spread (especially since mortgage interest is deductible and muni bond interest is tax exempt). Now muni bond fund rates are lower than mortgage rates.


Counter to what we have learned in MBA :grin:
I have given trying to understand the market :slight_smile: long ago, may be what we learned in MBA is not correct.
OHI is also green today. In fact, making very good money :slight_smile: High dividends + share price increase since purchase.


People are worrying about contagion risks from EM’s. Trump’s trade war antics is adding huge amount of instability and uncertainty. How I wish we had someone stable instead of that POS.


Which one? FB? Told you to get AAPL :slight_smile: Somehow not very affected by US-China trade war. Too much to lose for both sides to mess around with Apple supply chain?


Someone stable at the White House.

FB and GOOG are suffering because the regulatory risks, which is highly overblown IMO.


Did you tell yourself? :smile:


Over-exposed. Have been selling a little for many years. From over 90% to (can’t tell you)% of NW.


Tell me over dim sum then.


No wind no tide. Ok, you are saying too much tide. Is a judgement call. I have no idea whether is overblown or not. Just the firm belief that those founder-CEOs are geniuses that should be able to steer their companies through the storm. So use charts to time the buy. Most of my buys are triggering GTC buy :slight_smile:


FB chart is not indicating a buy right now. Sellers are clearly in control


Have you guys met each other yet?


Chart is fugly, yes.




I can arrange a dim sum get together. Me, you, and @hanera. We will reveal everything about ourselves during the meal, or not. Doesn’t matter either way :slight_smile:


LOL: He is in high tension by this Anonymous OP-ED :rofl:

Even Mike Pence came out public telling “That is not me !..”


How low do you think FB would decline to?
$155? $145? $115?


That assumes the US is the only market for investment. There are a lot of other moving parts including foreign money coming to the US due to strong dollar and higher interest rates. Rates in EU are terrible. You’d have to combine multiple models correctly to really understand it.

It’s similar to the tax rate vs. tax revenue debate. No one would ever think lowering the tax rate would increase tax revenue. Yet it is consistently what happens.


Sorry, I don’t have guesses to make. An important level is 149ish (March lows), time will tell if that holds or not. FB is currently below all key MAs and that makes it more likely to go down than up ; why try to be a hero and fight the trend?


How do you tell when is the right time to buy?
When price is above 50-day SMA, 200-day SMA or golden crossover?