Indices & ETFs

VOO which is based on $SPX is more bullish. VOO is comfortably above 200-day SMA while $SPX is hitting resistance of 200-day SMA. NASDAQ is below 200-day SMA too.

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Any one believe this, now? I hope no one, but he is telling the truth which every investor ignores it.

If what he said is true (listen only once) and this time is like four of the five times, there is nothing to scare about because the actual low would be slightly below the Christmas eve low.

If this is the one of the five times, dance to the bullish music.

If you’re so scare, buy some protective puts :slight_smile: From EW perspective, I notice most of the stocks seem to be completing a wave one (generic term), which portend an ensuing wave two (down wave) that retraces 50% (most common is 61.8%) to 99% (very rare) of wave one. So is consistent with what he is saying.

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Oh, no, I am not scared, but prepared(Preparing) and ready to face…:joy:

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Who is this guy and why should I listen to him?

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You do not need to listen to him, but let us see whether he is right and then decide.

Even for me, he is a stranger, I really do not know who is he…

He and another guy has a weekly podcast on the financial markets. It’s pretty fun. I listen to them every week.

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Avoid that podcast as it will only harm your investment acumen.

How reliable or accurate are they?

They don’t make predictions, so none of what they talked about is directly applicable to actual trading. However the boarder picture and historic POV is helpful.

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Coke says global slowdown will be a drag on 2019. Stock has worst day in 10 years

Is that a tech company? If not, then I don’t want to hear about it :frowning:

:scream: :scream: :scream:

This Is the Place Where S&P 500 Rallies Have Come to Die

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-15/this-is-the-place-where-s-p-500-rallies-have-come-to-die

Worse for bulls, earnings estimates continue to come down, tugging lower the index level at which the S&P 500’s forward profit multiple poses a problem. After one of the strongest years for earnings during the record bull run, companies are expected to post negative year-over-year growth in the first quarter of 2019. That would be the first contraction in three years. Minuscule profit growth is slated to follow in the next two quarters.

Market technicians including BMO Capital’s Russ Visch also say 2,800 is critical for the index’s further gain after breakout attempts ended near 2,810 in October, 2,814 in November and 2,790 in December. He says the index would have to rise past those numbers before it can make a meaningful run at new records.

“Only a close above multiple resistance levels in the 2,800-2,815 zone would make us rethink the call for a re-test,” Visch said. “Realistically, we don’t see that happening given the deterioration in short-term breadth and momentum gauges.”

Just a pullback of consolidation quality (less than 10% pullback). A pullback starting next week till Mar 1 is good as it means a powerful third wave (up wave) would start from Mar 4 :slight_smile: Buy hand over fist should that happen. If it rallies from now till Mar 1, then have to close all position and buy puts big time.

The market came up very fast (wrong recovery) between Dec 24th and now, that is the reason for rapid fall in future. It should have climbed very slowly, that is not the case. Now, the fall will likely be DCB and it is supposed to go below Dec 24th bottom.

My plan: I will buyback shares when it reaches below Dec 24th bottom. Until then, I will speculate with Short or Put.

standard warning/caveat:This is pure technical and speculation which can go wrong 100% any direction.

What if the market keeps shooting up? Are you just going to give up on stocks forever?

My assumption is that S&P will not cross 2850 in next 50 days. This may be right or wrong. Yes, it if shoots up, I am going to give up my future gains. The above is my potential loss in the gain. I will wait around 20 to 30 days before entering positive side, i.e, I may consider buy puts if market slides in line with my assumption.

On the other hand, it falls, my next assumption is S&P going down below Dec 24th bottom. This may also be right or wrong. If wrong,This is also my potential loss in the gain.

If right, I will get below 2300 which is a better gainer as I secured my cash now.

Bond market expects recession, stock market expects great times ahead. One of them is right.

I’m still waiting for a golden age to arrive. Not quite expecting apocalypse.

First, yearly tariff is 50 billion (out of 500b imports from china) which is a small issue. This is almost half of quarterly revenue of AAPL. Very tiny for US standards.

Our Economy is getting week along with worldwide recession/correction is going on. FED has already informed contraction in GDP for 2019 and 2020.

Source: Wall Street’s Incredible Shrinking Earnings Outlook | Fortune

Wall Street’s predictions for this quarter’s earnings are shrinking fast. That’s a bellwether for rolling downgrades as the year wears on––and a signal that the market’s current bull run could turn into a bear stampede.

On Friday, FactSet, the data analytics firm that compiles consensus market forecasts, issued a report noting that equity analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings-per-share to drop by 2.2% in the quarter ending March 30, compared with the same period in 2018. That’s a 5.4 point negative swing from the outlook on December 31, when the banks projected EPS gains of 3.2%. For the entire year, Wall Street has cut its estimates from 7.2% to 4.8%. But even those subdued expectations are suspect: The analysts are counting on 9.1% growth in Q4 to compensate for virtually flat profits for the first 9 months. After that, the profit boom is supposed to resume, with EPS jumping 11.4% in 2020––a number that’s actually higher than the forecast at year end.

The sharp recovery, after Dec 24th to now, is the real indicator of DCB.