San Francisco Is The Place To Be

Went up to the city yesterday.

Not sure if it was DreamForce or a result of general improvements, but saw far less homeless on the streets.

Did I hear correctly they are bringing in the DEA to help with the cleanup?

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Shoot, bring on the Seal Team 6, Canadian Mounties, Boy Scouts, The Avengers, MI-6…

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San Francisco Office Market Shows Signs of Life -
Sales slowly materialize as some sellers finally accept much lower prices

SF is on the rebound.

Catching a falling knife. Have fun!

That’s not what the office space data says. It’s cool people have positive feelings though.

Irving Street event could lead to new energy in Sunset, S.F.

Lagging indicator.

Unless you expect the remote trend turns around and goes up again, and big tech continues to lay people off, we are close to the bottom in SF office CRE.

If you are a buyer you can’t time the bottom exactly. May as well start sniffing around.

Isn’t the promise of AI that I’ll make companies so much more efficient that they won’t need as many employees? How are AI firms going to fill the vacuum from the operational wave of companies leaving offices? Those companies needed massive headcount to scale. AI should scale without much headcount.

Anthropic is 160 people
Open AI is is under 500
Microsoft has ~800 people on AI

The lease space being vacated is still multiple times higher than the space being leased.

The AI wave is still early.

At the early days of dotcom there were only a few toolmakers around like Netscape and Sun. But soon enough every company needed a Web presence and we have the 2nd wave of companies that used the Web to do business in new ways.

Right now we are still at the toolmaker stage of AI. OpenAI and Anthropic make LLM’s. We haven’t seen the tsunami of companies that use AI to do business in new ways. That will come. And it’s this tsunami of new companies that will employ shit ton of people.



Can a city really ‘die’?
Amid reports of San Francisco’s demise, the cable cars keep running and the tech industry keeps the money flowing

This comment :+1:t3:

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agree with not being complacent but other things are usual doomer apple to orange comparison. With remote work environment I am sure many waiting to move to SF if house price drops even if SF has 0 industry because of location/ weather. Same cannot be said about others even during their peak glory time.


Ever wonder why all the cities the guy listed are in Midwest? Why was that region called the Rust Belt?

The entire industrial Midwest went into decline as the US economic base migrated from manufacturing to services. Globalization hit the final nail into its coffin. As money ran dry all the problems reared their ugly heads.

San Francisco has its share of problems but as long as the tech industry is still flying high it will be ok. We can fix and fine tune things. I have been saying SF hit bottom in 2021. After we fired half the school board and got rid of Chesa in 2022, it’s on the rebound. It looks like MSM finally got it.

Mission Local is an extreme leftist outlet. They frame this as a negative but to moderates like me it’s great news.

San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins, appointed to the top prosecutor role last year, has in her first 15 months raised the city’s conviction rate for the first time in eight years, according to data from her office.

Conviction rates rose from 37 percent of cases in 2022 to almost 43 percent in 2023. It is the first time since 2016 that those rates have risen.

And the types of cases being charged have shifted. In cases for petty theft, charging rates have jumped from 41 percent in 2020 to 65 percent in 2022. Most of these cases are diverted, but nearly 19 percent of those cases resulted in a conviction in 2022, compared to about 8 percent in 2021.

Elections have consequences.