Silicon is the New Oil

We already bought masks & respirators and surgical eye-glasses (as virus can pass through eyes).

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Uber kiasu ah?

One of our doctors suggested this when we asked over phone…

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Samsung and Hynix have memory factories in China and S Korea and they control ~70% of DRAM supply.

Two downs, who’s left?

All in USA (Austin and Santa Clara?) and Singapore?

Do DRAM needs rare Earth from China?

@manch What would you do now? Wait for more clarity or start scaling in MU like mad dogs?

I am already more than full so I would just do some small scale wild cat buys here and there if they dropped like a rock. Bought a little bit of AMD because it’s 25% off peak.

I found out I don’t really understand MU. I understand the bull case for DRAM as a whole but how does that translate to MU specifically? Investors have to rely on the stability of the three-company monopoly between Micron, Samsung and Hynix. You’d have to bet (or hope) none of them are crazy or desperate enough to start a price war. It’s a reasonable case but I have concluded I don’t understand their relationships well enough.

The same thing can be said about Uber and Lyft. But first a two company monopoly is much more stable than one between three companies. And secondly both Uber and Lyft are domestic companies and share many of the same investors. I feel more comfortable both of them would be subject to the same pressure to not go crazy.

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Short-term no need to understand. Supply chain of Hynix and Samsung are screwed. MU is now THE only big DRAM supplier. Investors are betting on that, see the bullish divergence that develop! As I said many times, even if you don’t believe in TA, you should trust divergence.

You can buy any stocks now, it can bound to go up, as S&P touch deep down value.

You are looking at supply side, how about demand side for MU? => “Micron generated 57% of its sales from China in 2018”

China oil consumption issue resulted all oil companies to drop (including OXY to $32). If MU has 57% dependency, the drop is low compared to AAPL drop which is 15% Revenue from China !

If the Corona virus really impacts Chinese Economy and workers are staying away from office, it is hard to predict the impact.


We don’t know whether the reduced demand will still be big enough for MU supply. But bullish divergence is telling us that the collective wisdom thinks it probably is.

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Semi back in a vengeance :flushed:

@manch pick of AMD crushes @Jil pick of BYND🤗 6.77% only narrowly edge out MU

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This interview with Jim Keller is awesome. The host doesn’t know much about computer architecture and asked some pretty basic questions, but that makes it accessible to people not familiar with CPU designs. Keller is the main architect who defined the 64 bit extension to x86 and a legend. He gave some pretty insightful big picture of where computer is heading.

Can you summarize in a few lines what did you learn from this video or at least point to the part you think is the key part of this video so that those who do not have an hour to spare can benefit?

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The part that struck me the most is the reason he gave why Moore’s law has a lot more headroom than most people think. Under the umbrella of Moore’s law it’s really a collection of different technologies, each with its own S curve. Some subset of these technologies reaching maturity doesn’t preclude another set just barely ramping up. Each silicon device is now about 1000^3 atoms big. We can probably get down to 10^3 that means we still 1Mx scaling left to go.

That’s just one of the things he talked about. Watch the whole thing.

Two chip stocks are among the winners. Micron on strong earnings and a better-than-expected forecast. Xilinx on announcement of expecting higher revenue.

Unfortunately, is an underperformer compare to WFH/ cloud stocks. I have MU :sob: barely recovered.

Another good interview. This time it’s David Patterson, co-creator of RISC architecture and creator of RAID. He talked a good bit about the CISC vs RISC history and pushed back against Jim Keller’s claim that Moore’s Law is not dead. Patterson is firmly in the camp that Moore’s law is rapidly slowing down.

Meanwhile MU is struggling :sob:

Praying for breakout next week. Has been underperforming! Still below pre-Covid high of $61.19. Loaded 5 calls ($50) :slight_smile: