All recovery starts with a short squeeze. You didn’t get it from what I have said yesterday? What happen after short squeeze is what determine whether this is a true recovery or DCB. From the way Jim Cramer said, he also don’t know - if you think he said is a resumption of bull market - you totally misunderstood him - that is probably why many think he is not good - they always misunderstood him - many don’t blame themselves that they didn’t understood what were said*. He is day trading like you.
*I like to make a sarcastic statement of many people. During school, despite teachers/professors explaining the content, gave examples and even hinted what would be in the exam, many people still fail. But suddenly, after graduating, they become super smart and can understand what any1 said and made judgement. IMHO, unless you have been scoring A+ all the time, most probably you didn’t understand what were said.
Every one, you, me, forum viewers and even non investors, knows stocks go down, stop at some place and come back.
Jim Cramer is simply making use of the current turmoil and trying to market when blood on street, “Hi guys, I know the market, and I am buying…like that”.
It is publicity stunt, I do not believe him
The real investors like WB won’t even declare, but secretly buy behind the scene.
It is only seen at 13-F-HR
Is ok, I already know is impossible to sway one’s view once they are fossilized. There is a salesman’s axiom, you can’t sell anything to a person who doesn’t want to buy.
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The program I have is far better than Jim Cramer’s statement. But, even the program is stress tested now with market ! The current status is exactly like Dec 24, 2018 bottom, but I am not confident.
I have made considerable amount of money this year and I do not want to lose the gain.
DCBs based on short squeeze, less than 5%, are dangerous to enter. Let market settle and jump 5% up, then I can resume. Otherwise, market can easily go further down.
Not confident of your own program? Frankly is a good thing. Quite often, instinct is correct.
That is also a wise decision.
Is also a wise decision.
It is a publicity stunt, pretty obvious. How does don’t believe come in, I don’t know. His forecast is correct. His intent may not be noble. Is two separate issues.
Btw, semi is a barometer of the economy. If semi doesn’t recover, it means more pain. So whether it is a short squeeze or resumption of rally, we need to know.
I always get inference from it and take action manually to remove any bug/bias. This is like using calculator and rechecking the math. This has been working nicely since Dec 2017 onwards, may be bull market !
Even today, it says BUY (like Jim Cramer), but I do not have confidence.
Now, coming to bear market (if so), it is not right to believe the results until proven.
But it gave me signal , last Wednesday, market is going to sell off, but it never gives how much depth !
I purchased spy puts last Thursday and sold Friday with 5x gain.
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Regarding Semi’s, you need to know the real status of FoxConn, one of the biggest employer in China, plant and workers status. The plants may be at various region including wuhun.
All most all Semis, including AAPL, get their supply from FoxConn. Unless they resume, semi can not dispatch materials.
If you just focus on them, you can know ahead. This is what analysts will be focusing.
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Spot price acts like stock market, but will not give you forecast. If China production is standstill, how can they supply worldwide.
What I am hearing is negative news after news, scary to believe. but true news. I do not know whether it is too much hype or real.
- Japan closes all schools - This is true, but scary news
- OPEC cuts oil supply reduced demand from China
- Air lines cut their schedule.
- Virus spread increasing South Korea, Iran, Italy, Japan, Hong Kong and China.
I am buying Ruger stock. Plus a couple boxes of masks. Home Depot is already out of respirators
We already bought masks & respirators and surgical eye-glasses (as virus can pass through eyes).
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Uber kiasu ah?
One of our doctors suggested this when we asked over phone…
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Samsung and Hynix have memory factories in China and S Korea and they control ~70% of DRAM supply.
Two downs, who’s left?
All in USA (Austin and Santa Clara?) and Singapore?
Do DRAM needs rare Earth from China?
@manch What would you do now? Wait for more clarity or start scaling in MU like mad dogs?
I am already more than full so I would just do some small scale wild cat buys here and there if they dropped like a rock. Bought a little bit of AMD because it’s 25% off peak.
I found out I don’t really understand MU. I understand the bull case for DRAM as a whole but how does that translate to MU specifically? Investors have to rely on the stability of the three-company monopoly between Micron, Samsung and Hynix. You’d have to bet (or hope) none of them are crazy or desperate enough to start a price war. It’s a reasonable case but I have concluded I don’t understand their relationships well enough.
The same thing can be said about Uber and Lyft. But first a two company monopoly is much more stable than one between three companies. And secondly both Uber and Lyft are domestic companies and share many of the same investors. I feel more comfortable both of them would be subject to the same pressure to not go crazy.
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Short-term no need to understand. Supply chain of Hynix and Samsung are screwed. MU is now THE only big DRAM supplier. Investors are betting on that, see the bullish divergence that develop! As I said many times, even if you don’t believe in TA, you should trust divergence.
You can buy any stocks now, it can bound to go up, as S&P touch deep down value.
You are looking at supply side, how about demand side for MU? => “Micron generated 57% of its sales from China in 2018”
China oil consumption issue resulted all oil companies to drop (including OXY to $32). If MU has 57% dependency, the drop is low compared to AAPL drop which is 15% Revenue from China !
If the Corona virus really impacts Chinese Economy and workers are staying away from office, it is hard to predict the impact.
We don’t know whether the reduced demand will still be big enough for MU supply. But bullish divergence is telling us that the collective wisdom thinks it probably is.
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