South Bay job growth slowing down

Santa Clara county just suffered its worst job loss since the great recession. I tried to get the article reposted from online but I can’t find it.

“Santa Clara County and the East Bay suffered their worst two month stretch of job losses since the Great Recession during January and February, state jobs data showed Friday, raising questions about the region’s economic strength.” Santa Clara County lost 5,700 jobs and the East bay lost 2,400. Is this enough to cause a drop in real estate prices?

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This story maybe?

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Which companies recently had layoffs?

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Here’s what I found on the Warning report of layoffs from EDD from January to present… interesting i would have sorted for Bay Area locations if I had the keys to the EDD office and computer file…:slight_smile:

The dates are Notice, Effective and Received in that order…

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Not the real story…unemployment still down.

SAN JOSE-SUNNYVALE-SANTA CLARA METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA (MSA)
(SAN BENITO AND SANTA CLARA COUNTIES)

Seasonal trends dominated month-over job scene
The unemployment rate in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA was 3.6 percent in
February 2017, down from a revised 3.7 percent in January 2017, and below the year-ago
estimate of 4.0 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 5.2 percent
for California and 4.9 percent for the nation during the same period. The unemployment rate
was 7.2 percent in San Benito County, and 3.5 percent in Santa Clara County.
Between January 2017 and February 2017, combined employment in the South Bay counties
of San Benito and Santa Clara rose by 2,000 jobs to reach 1,078,300.
• Private and public educational services increased seasonally, up by 2,200 jobs
combined over the month. Private schools gained 1,700 jobs, largely within private
colleges, universities, and professional schools (up 1,400 jobs). Meanwhile, public
schools added a net 500 jobs.
• Leisure and hospitality followed, adding 1,700 jobs seasonally. Employment in
restaurants (up 1,000 jobs) represented nearly three-fifths of that increase.
• Farming gained 1,000 jobs, in line with the cool season vegetable planting calendar.
• In contrast, trade, transportation, and utilities lost 4,100 jobs seasonally, much greater
than its average loss of 1,500 jobs at this time of year. Retail trade and wholesale trade
accounted for the bulk of the cutbacks, down by 2,700 jobs and 1,300 jobs, respectively.
Between February 2016 and February 2017, total employment in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-
Santa Clara MSA, which also includes San Benito County, expanded by 18,900 jobs, or
1.8 percent. Private nonfarm jobs rose by 1.7 percent, or 15,800 jobs, over the year.
• Leisure and hospitality led the year-over job gains, up by 5,500 jobs. Nearly half of the
increase occurred in food services and drinking places (up 2,600 jobs).
• Professional and business services rose by 3,600 jobs. Gains in both professional,
scientific, and technical services (up 4,800 jobs) and management of companies (up 200
jobs) more than offset a drop in administrative, support, and waste services (down
1,400 jobs).
• Private educational and health services followed, also advancing by 3,600 jobs, primarily
in private health care (up 3,300 jobs).
• On the downside, trade, transportation, and utilities trimmed a net 2,100 jobs compared

Similar in San Mateo co.

For some people it seems layoffs, to others it seems they are discharging old positions to hire new employees. The old trick of getting rid of the old farts never stops. Ebay did it, and so other companies, nobody can plead the 5th here.

Article is talking about Santa Clara, not San Mateo though, elt1.

I don’t find the raw numbers useful. Shedding 2300 tech jobs out of how many?

This, though, is more useful:
“During 2016, the VC sector provided $24.9 billion in financing, down 27.6 percent from the $34.4 billion in venture investing in 2015, according to the MoneyTree Report by PricewaterhouseCoopers and CB Insights.”

When does that drop affect housing?

VC funding decline has caused a RE slowdown in SF in 2016. However, 2017 is a year with decent appreciation. There are other factors at play, interest rate, life cycle of millenniums etc. Going forward, millenniums will drive the market.

If you take a look at FB, Uber, Airbnb, most of their workers are renters. When marriage and babies come, a home purchase will become a necessity.

Better buy early, buy before these guys. Ask your husband to have a survey of his teammates, if 70% of his coworkers are renters, buy ahead of his coworkers to avoid an infight against them after ipo. The average hometownship is 65%. Imagine the competitions from 30% to 65%. Tech worker homeownerhsip might be higher than 65% for 35+.

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Good points BAGB

Doesn’t VC funding affect the rental market more than home sales? The people getting VC jobs aren’t liquid, so they aren’t buyers yet. The acquisition/IPO market should drive the home buying market. That’s when people are liquid and have the down payment or can pay cash.

Where did you get this information? Can you share a link?

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There is no link, no research, just some anecdotal evidence

The unemployment charts are very interesting. .Peaks keep getting higher…7 to 8 years since last peak…Looks like the 90s chart…2008-9 was an unusual time…I we follow th 90s pattern could be a couple of years before a downturn…Real estate prices might take a couple of years after that to soften…As long as unemployment stays low , house prices will keep going up…Plus inventory is historically low, nationwide…

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It’s still a new company with new jobs. No funding, no employment.

You can’t compare the national average to the BA. We are a unique entity, a unique market. But then you need to dissect why we are as we are. Lots of jobs? Lots of VC funding? Not enough inventory? And so on.

For any dramatic appreciation, you need to base your expectations on new Facebooks or Googles to make their IPOs some people rich so they can start a new round of over bidding and whatnot. Meanwhile, keep dreaming. We may be at the pick of the next bubble, or a new round of IPOs. Do you know if the latter is true?

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Have to quote a law mentioned by John… can’t remember the name of the law… basically, global and local situation can be vastly different.

The inventory shortage is a national story…Plus lowest inventory in BA history…Prices are up in the BA 11% y/y and the buying season has just started…

If I can NOT sell that SFH and that condo in 95116 I will starting looking for price trend. 95116 seems to be the neighborhood where one never overbid.

What happened to Yahoo? I do not see layoff from the list in Santa Clara… Qual Com.
The list seems to be incomplete.

2017 I doubt it will be probably not adding jobs. As for housing price erosion it will take 3-6 month after stop paying mortgage. I already fee the condo market price will drop. There are so many of new ones built.

Sam Shueh
Campbell, CA