Every week I’ll go to Redfin, look at the area between Millbrae and Palo Alto, and look at the ratio of price reductions to total houses for sale.
Denominator: Houses only, max $2M sale price, active only
Numerator: Houses only, max $2M sale price, active only, price reduction
Right now: 9/194, or 4.6%. Interesting to see how this evolves
would be nice if you keep track of san jose too, i know a lot have been reduced and still unable to sell.
R&V housing index.
I don’t know if this is that meaningful since some listing agents like to list low to start bidding wars while others actually price at what they want to sell at
I feel like prices might start picking up soon.
Why?
Are you interested in buying in South Bay (or do you have property here)?
I noticed that you recently mentioned Cupertino and SJ a few times.
Aren’t you more interested in San Mateo County?
i’m more interested in millbrae,
but san jose has most inventory for sale, i think it will be a good indicator to other smaller cities what happens when inventory/price reduction starting to pile up.
Here is what I have been tracking last few weeks. My take is it is okay to have the price drop for changing market condition, but as long as those got dropped in last 7 days went pending.
I’ll be worried if those dropped in 14 days or 30 days kept on increasing which means people stopped buying so far that doesn’t happened yet.
| 7 days | 7 - 14 days | 15 - 30 days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24/2018 | 99 | 54 | 45 |
| 09/25/2018 | 100 | 53 | 48 |
| 09/26/2018 | 101 | 57 | 49 |
| 09/28/2018 | 109 | 55 | 55 |
| 09/30/2018 | 95 | 54 | 62 |
| 10/1/2018 | 110 | 54 | 52 |
| 10/3/2018 | 108 | 60 | 59 |
| 10/6/2018 | 103 | 61 | 67 |
| 10/11/2018 | 136 | 65 | 69 |
The areas I am watching felt like going faster a bit. I may be wrong, though, i haven’t been following as closely lately for the past month or so due to work.
Isn’t Milbrae more correlated to SF than SJ?
I guess buyer/seller pool is quite different between Milbrae and SJ.
However, I may be wrong, I don’t know much about Milbrae.
yup, but it’s still good data reference.
So what do you see what we are trending towards ?
Are houses selling within first 7 days of price reduction or still lingering on .
So far they went pending in good rate after the price drop, there are obviously some outlier making into 14 days period.
Weekly update: 8/199 = 4%
A bit delay update. Price deduction increased in week of 10/11 & 10/17 but it looks like market absorbed it most of them went pending.
| 7 days | 7 - 14 days | 15 - 30 days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24/2018 | 99 | 54 | 45 |
| 09/25/2018 | 100 | 53 | 48 |
| 09/26/2018 | 101 | 57 | 49 |
| 09/28/2018 | 109 | 55 | 55 |
| 09/30/2018 | 95 | 54 | 62 |
| 10/1/2018 | 110 | 54 | 52 |
| 10/3/2018 | 108 | 60 | 59 |
| 10/6/2018 | 103 | 61 | 67 |
| 10/11/2018 | 136 | 65 | 69 |
| 10/17/2018 | 134 | 73 | 75 |
| 10/24/2018 | 115 | 78 | 81 |
this is very nicely done. please keep updating! thank you
Could you add a column for price reductions > 30 days old? An increase in homes sitting even after a price reduction would indicate significant softening.
Added last 2 weeks data:
I started collecting that data last two weeks as well as total inventory, so we can do the ratio, but will add to the graph when we have enough data.
thanks!
