S&P index fund +26.9%
AAPL +33.8%
NW +32.6%
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That’s a huge milestone! Congratulations!
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Everything is about 30% appreciated this year. We need to use gdp deflater to get an estimate of true value increase. But, I have doubt due to spurious data generated by government anyone really knows what is actual gdp deflator to use.
What is contribution of your RE (particularly the ones outside CA) portion of your portfolio?
I don’t track.
S&P 500: 26.9%
NASDAQ: 21.4%
Stocks: 43%
RE: 16.7%
Net Worth: 41.3%
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S&P index fund -19.24%
AAPL -26.83% 
NW -23% 
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Happy New Year and let 2023 be a good one for all of us 
Way to be bold and put it out there. I suspect there will be less posts in this thread than last year. 
Happy New Year everyone.
I feel your pain. I guess most folks lost all gains of pandemic boom year like you. I suspect everything will keep falling through 2023. It’s quite possible that after 2023 most people would have lost all gains of past 5 years.
Assuming Fed pushes rates to 5.5% by end of 2023. Would be catastrophic. PE would be pushed down to under 15. Compound this with earnings recession in 2023 and we are looking at another 30% drop in 2023.
Fed year end rate consensus remains 5.5%.
PE = 1/Fed rate
22 for 4.5% (we’re here)
20 for 5%
18 for 5.5%
16.7 for 6%
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Add at least another percentage to Fed rate in this math due to risk premium associated with stocks. PE of 15 seems generous to me.
One reason it may not fall under that level is retail and gen z blind risk appetite and belief in stocks, fostered by Fed over last two decades of unlimited printing, interest rate suppression and bailouts. If Fed stays put for another couple years, the blind belief will begin to crack.
I know breaking my silence !
Let this be last as I need to set right for REInv
With a good intention of warning you all what the FED has done/going to do
Yes, PE 15 is generous when FED raises 1% in next 2 mtgs, S&P EPS will go down below 10 (SPY not SPX)!
I do not know who you are, but I ran my (newly programmed last 10 days) fundamental analysis for 525 companies. It is in sync with what you said here. Kudos to you. Sorry for the dispute you and me have. Future for next 5 years are not good for USA regarding stocks. All the stocks FANG…TSLA everything goes down to earth, may be halved when FED Fund rate hits 5.25%
Kudos to you.
Would be catastrophic. => Correct. What @hanera guess is linear effect, but real effect is exponential effect for 10 years.
Since stocks and other treasuries are not giving good return (Market expectation), 10 year bond is attractive now and massive billions are moved to 10 year (selling stocks) and FED coolly selling all his balance sheet bonds.
Since I was actively trading, never looked into fundamentals. But when I worked fundamentals, I realized it.
Say a person has $1M now, he wants to invest 10 year bond or AAPL (assuming AAPL has zero growth rate YOY next 10 years average (some ups and downs)), both are equal at this current AAPL price.
By all means, all major stocks may potentially be going down. However, this is not going to happen to OXY what the WB picked (Master minded investor, Living legend).
Yield curve inversion is 100% confirmation that we have next 5 years worst period.
Market thinks that stocks and other bonds are not going to beat 10 year with this current yield!
Do not believe FED is run by pack of fools, they are very well aware of this, they are doing good service to country, but not for individual (as individuals needs to save by themselves).
I won’t respond for any questions, Just wanted to warn you all
I promise I won’t return again whatever it may be.
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Two points:
- The right formula is…
PE = 1/10-year yield
Today yield is 3.88%, so PE = 26 
- 3.88% even though Fed rate is 4.5% should tell you what bond market is thinking.
FA is multi-faceted. Different FA, different results🤭
Bond market like everyone else is dreaming of a Fed pivot. If inflation will not come back down to earth, which I think will not, Fed cannot pivot.
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We are all guessing 
Frankly I don’t know what is down to earth means. Without hard numbers and time frame, discussion is meaningless.
2%, which Fed has stated time and again is their target.
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Is what Fed say, Market didn’t believe. Is more like 3-4%.
Yeah market has been in denial. I suspect they forgot the old saying: do not fight the Fed. Or may be they still have hangover from decade long low interest fueled orgy.
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They should refer to younger millennials and gen z. Many has not experienced the GFC and the dotcom bust… agony of your life saving being wiped out.