The infrastructure investment is on the cash flow under capital expenditures.
Their gross margin on the cars is terrible compared to tech gross margins. It’s around 15%. It’s on par with other auto companies. If Tesla isn’t more profitable than other car companies, then why should it trade at a premium valuation? Even if they grow the revenue to GM size, they aren’t going to have a higher gross margin. I don’t see how they’ll have more net profit than GM.
Just FYI: I can not justify TSLA on valuation like the same way AAPL or FB is valued.
Between 7/24/2018 ($297) to 8/7/2018 ($379) what is changed? quarterly Results, better than expected. This is fundamental change, growth oriented. Stock went up Crazily to $350.
Then Elon artificially hyped saying $420 funding secured, but no one believed.Stock went up and down
Between 8/7/2018 ($379) to 09/7/2018 (263.24) what is changed? Multiple SEC reviews, Marijuana issue etc, analysts downgrades (never trust them unless we make sure with DD) that has brought down heavily.
These are not fundamental changes, but sensational, market is crazy and wild both ways, a kind of over reaction.
In both the cases, either $379 or $250 it is over reaction and market is irrational which is what an opportunity for people like me to catch on. Since market is bullish, it is behaving like this and will not behave this way during 2008-2011.
Seth Klarmann (and many others) exactly pointed out Market is priced wrongly by over reaction. This is nothing but common sense called “Margin of Safety”.
On Friday, I clearly see that price $263 too low and will not long last and posted here.
Any way, we can not compare TSLA with GM as GM is well established one, TSLA is new entry into the space.
I repeated many times
TSLA over reaction, bringing down, is not fundamental change, but emotional change.
FB reaction, bringing down, is a fundamental change, but not emotional change. The fundamental change is margin reduction, acknowledged by Mark Z.
This is exactly like how much AAPL will get hit by tariff. No one really knows, for AAPL, unless to insiders like Tim Cook. Similarly, How much margin gets reduced for FB will only be known to insiders like Mark Z.
Depending on the margin reduction (by reduction in users/accounts for FB and tariff impact to AAPL), market likely to correct in future.
But people like WQJ or hanera won’t be disturbed as they bought at very low during startup. But, anyone wants to buy now (like me) must think about safety of their investment money.
I’d argue TSLA never should have been so highly valued on the first place. That was an emotional cult around the CEO. Now the stock price is starting to reflect the fundamentals. It’s beginning to reflect a business with 15% gross margins that’ll never generate a lot of free cash flow.