Tesla’s Make-Or-Break Moment Is Fast Approaching


I stopped trusting online reviews a couple of years ago. Too easy to astroturf :slight_smile:
You can hire people on Amazon Turk for a less then a dollar a review. easy way to push up or down.


That’s what I tell my boss every year. Margins will be better next year :smiley:


賊喊捉賊 :rofl:


Please, no posts about Yelp…


Anyways currently it looks like they are going to generate ~700 million in positive cash flow from Q3’s numbers. Will be able to pay off loan due next year. Most capex on Model 3 is this year, will drop significantly starting 2019. Will have 1 billion / quarter in cash flow from Model 3 alone in 2019.

Please do not short this stock.


I don’t have a position or plan to have a position in this stock as it is too hard for me to understand.

However, as an old hardware guy, there’s a number of things odd about their P&L and your statement on their profit for this quarter is inline with what I said above. What we disagree on is if this stock is valued correctly.

P.S. If the car was really in hot demand, they won’t need to have used their incentives trigger at quarter end to juice sales. They only brought forward demand and a depressed profitability. I don’t believe pricing is that elastic with cars as it’s a big capital purchase


Plan to buy TSLA?


Can I buy a brand new Tesla Car for $30k?


No…and that’s the problem frankly. Tesla’s price points are higher, across the board.


@ Zeapelido, many kudos to you for providing first hand information.

WQJ, your statement right as it reflects many of the forum members view on TSLA.

Most of them here biased towards their own sentiments. True investors should be open minded and must realistically understand the details around them to evaluate their choices.

Whoever understands first, they win, there you stand on FB and TSLA.

With all UPs and DOWNs, I am holding TEVA strongly.

Similarly, I am going to hold TSLA with any future UPs and DOWNs.

I see positive growth for TSLA from now on. IMO, TSLA is likely to reach beyond $400 twelve to eighteen months time frame.

Few reasons for positive growth:

  1. Elon got a shot, he knows what to do and what not to do.
  2. Recent production figures comes to profitable range.
  3. Continue the research progress to 500 miles range (Truck) and 620 miles range (Roadstar).


No, minimum is $35000, but normal price (with basic add-ons…etc) is $48000.

If you buy Tesla with $35000 price model, you won’t like it.

If you buy Tesla Model 3 with few add-ons costing $48000, you will love it.


full disclosure: I have good amount of TSLA shares, but do not own Tesla cars.

Tesla cars are expensive than other competitive cars like Bolt. Tesla is having money crunch with massive infrastructure. Tesla turnaround will happen within 12 months, most likely in next 2 quarters.

I do not know whether TSLA shares go UP or NOT, but TSLA will have long future and continue to be leader of EV technology at least next 10 years until we see 60%-70% EV cars on the road.


No need for TSLA investors to own a Tesla. Cars are depreciating assets. Buy the cheapest one that you feel comfortable in. And I don’t need a $45k car to make me feel comfortable driving. There are plenty of people out there craving luxury so no need to do so yourself…


Thought you were in the waiting list.


Perfectly right.

They are paying money to current TSLA holders !

But you know the truth, TSLA is one of the highest shorted stock, appx 25% short float, esp above 10B+ Market cap.

That is why, this is one of the volatile stocks as many float stocks are held by strong holders, such as ELON holds appx 20%, Fidelity holds 12.5% and all institutions hold 52.5%, leaving 15% to actual float.



Yes, I was in waiting list, but cancelled the Waiting list, bought Bolt. I lease two Bolts now instead of two model 3 waiting list.


how’s the bolt? how many miles can go full charge?


Full charge, it is 235 miles, but easily catch 200 miles. I drove from my home to golden gate and came back (each way 75 miles).

My fuel cost works around 3 cents/mile (EV rate time 11PM-7AM). Mostly, I use for office 30 miles each way in car pool, but nowadays I use bolt for air port drop off/pick up too.

Bolt is almost like Tesla model 3 lacking many fun features like autopilot…etc.


Sound like you’re not holding for long. Once target is reached, sell?


Remember, I told, long back, that I am not seasoned buy and holder like you and WQJ.

The first ever stock I started holding is TEVA, trusting WB.

TSLA, I knew very well volatile, buying and selling with volatility. But the price range I purchased was $270 which is almost 10% from 2018 bottom, good margin of safety for me.

For TEVA, if it reaches below $21, I start buying more.
For TSLA, if it reaches below 270, I start buying more.

For both TEVA and TSLA, I do not have any target sale range.

Having said that, I am still concerned what to do if market crashes after 4 rate hikes ! This is the only concern as I see TEVA falling down from 25 to 21 which is a huge loss, but able to hold it as my purchase price range was between 17 and 18.

I do not know what will I do when market crashes like year 2000 or year 2008. Other than this, I will hold it.