Tesla’s Make-Or-Break Moment Is Fast Approaching


#1619

Correct, by 2022 EV car pool is done unless CA extends it which I doubt in view of fastrak. By that time, EV technologies will be better and cost effective. Sedans like model 3 will be available for $20-25k range.

Until car pool rule is there, I will prefer lease as car pool is removed for pre-2017 cars. Once car pool sticker period is over, and when battery technology has longer life - say 10-15 years, I may prefer buying it.

Presently, 5%-8% drop every year the mileage range. The GM bolt I bought was 235 miles/charge rating, actually gives 200 miles/charge that reduces to 170 miles/charge by the end of 3 years.

When cars are coming to 500 miles/charge, then it is economical to buy and use for more than 8 years. We need to have replaceable batteries to extend the life term of battery car. IIRC, Tesla gives it,replaceable batteries, but delayed in delivery.

Technology is still evolving, that is why I prefer leasing (easy to go for new car).


#1620

Kona is already available in Canada.


#1621

Bearish for Tesla. All these Tesla bulls refusing to buy the actual cars. :smile:


#1622

Think of this way, when Tesla bulls like me and WQJ are not buying, the stock came from $17 to $300. If we buy, it will go to moon…:rofl:


#1623

You are absolutely right… :rofl:


#1624

Moon is inside the Earth core? TSLA closed below my purchase price :pleading_face:


#1625

The real losers are the Tesla owners. When the company no longer exists how will they service their ultra-expensive car? Where will they charge it when all those Tesla super-chargers have gone dark?
The average owner has as much to lose here as the average shareholder. Perhaps more.


#1626

How many shares do you own and what’s the proportion of that compared to your AAPL holding? :smile:


#1627

When the earth no longer exist where are you going to live? Stop imagining non-existent scenarios :smile:


#1628

See industry wide challenges are there. China+Euro+Emerging Market economies are coming down, demand is reducing. Compared to GM lay offs and Ford Lay offs, TSLA lay off is very small.

I do not know whether this blog will survive that long or many of our members (like me) survive that long, but TSLA will have longer life like 25 to 50 years.

This is tech+car company like that of GM of F surviving since their innovative time.


#1629

#1631

My investment horizons are shorter than that.


#1632

“In California, prices went from $0.26 per kWh to ranging from $0.32 to $0.36 per kWh in the charging stations that we verified…”

At 0.34 per kWh and using 4.1 miles per kWh (estimate I found online) it costs about 10% more to drive a Tesla in CA than it does for me to drive my 185 hp ICE car here in AZ.
34 mpg/4.1 = 8.3 kWh to a gallon of gas. 8.3 x 0.34 = $2.82. I’m paying a little over $2.50 a gallon.


#1633

IIRC, Tesla Super Charger is optional. Super Charger is required only when you go long distance, more than 200 miles. PG&E charges are high for superchargers, that 440 voltage industrial line.

I use Bolt, not using free company superchargers (as they are always crowded), but use my own home Charger 7.2KW at night after 11 pm. The PGE EV rate is 11 cents/Kwh and my charges are appx $40/month/Car. Using two Bolts around 18 months, not even single day Super Charger required for me.

It works out appx 3 Cents/Mile drive.


#1634

#1635

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-19/tesla-s-model-3-wait-list-may-undermine-musk-one-way-or-another?srnd=premium

Tesla’s Model 3 Wait List May Undermine Musk, One Way or Another

January 19, 2019, 6:00 AM PST

  • Many deposit holders are standing by for $35,000 base version

  • Would-be buyers could pinch profit margins, or lose patience

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Telsa should open up the reservation for the Model Y. Get the fans excited and use the free interest capital.


#1636

We have a word for that: Ponzi scheme. Take money from future dumber fans to pay for the current dumb fans. :smile:


#1637

The only Ponzi that is happening is inside your own head.


#1638

Many do not understand as they have preset ideas about! They miss the opportunities!!


#1639

Ideas about what? The Ponzi scheme? :smile: