The next black swan event..War with China

Could Trump blunder into a war…He is no student of history…And thinks words don’t matter…Does China want to keep pushing the US out of Asia? And what about Korea, Taiwan and Japan? How will they react to growing Chinese naval power?

I do not think Trump goes war with China, but he will fund US Military to be stronger, lot of developments will happen on defense side using all these tensions.

However, he may have tough time with China as he also plans blocking trade.

Having the US in Asia is a stabilizing influence. .We have 40k troops in Korea and 50k in Japan for 70 years…The American people are tired of being the worlds police…Trump is an isolationist…He even suggested Japan develop their own nuclear weapons…It would not be in China’s interest for the US to withdraw. …But their nationalists may want to force the US out…Which would threaten all other nations in the region…

How long will we keep paying for other nations security? Japan bases cost us $5b/year…S Korea a similar number . Japan reimburses us for less than half the cost…Germany costs even more…

Total over $150b… $500/per US citizen

And the hidden costs are much higher…What is the cost of all this security in terms of our standing in the world…We are maintaining an empire with lots of costs in blood and treasure no returns…We didnt even get any oil for all our dead and trillions lost in Iraq.

In Vine’s view, overseas bases cause more harm than good, both for the United States and the countries that host them. Overseas bases are expensive, almost always costing more than the same facility would on U.S. soil. Vine argues that in some cases, such as on Diego Garcia, an atoll in the central Indian Ocean, indigenous people were pushed off their lands to make room for runways. He suggests that the desire to obtain basing rights has caused the United States to cavort with dictators, tyrants and even mobsters. Bases have wreaked environmental destruction in the form of spilled fuels, oil, ammunition and other military-industrial detritus. Meanwhile, the presence of the Americans distorts local economies, sometimes providing a market for prostitution and human trafficking. Construction and service contracts for overseas bases fatten the bank accounts of mercenary businessmen, while the hundreds of thousands of service members and families stationed abroad spend their money bolstering foreign economies, rather than those at home.

But Trump is “Fear no one, America No 1 as always” or “It is my way or no way”. He will not care about other country or other country interest including NATO.

See US Defense is largest in the world, next is China.

I do not think/believe US maintains forces abroad free or without compensation. It must be bilateral treaty that pays one way or other. Even in Iraq, there will be some treaty and pay back, but the amount may differ based on US strategic benefit.

Our defense budget is almost $600b with 3.2 million employees. . $2m/employee. .We need to outsource the costs…We can hire the Mexicans and the Chinese for one tenth the cost…We need to use the British model for running an empire. .Hire local troops…Supporting Americans at $2m each in costs is unsustainable. .The American people have spoken, they have voted for the first isolationist in 80 years…Trump needs to bring our troops home…Active duty force is 1.3m…130,000 stationed overseas…All the back office work can be done in India. .just like the call centers…lol

25% of our military budget is spent overseas to support one tenth of out troops…It costs double what it does for troops stateside. …Plus most of the occupied countries hate our presence. .Okinawa wants us out just like the Philippines kicked us out years ago…

With drones and aircraft carriers we could eliminate most over seas bases…

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LOL. That is why we keep our forces outsourced to other countries !

The costs quoted are net after whatever little compensation we receive…Point is we would better off without our Empire. .Britain finally is thriving a generation or two after getting rid of theirs…And they were much better at running theirs for 500 years from 1588-1945…They should thank the Japanese for ending in less than 100 days a less than profitable empire of 500 years.

My guess is our Empire will end just like the British one…In a short time during a brutal war…Ironic because our Empire was set up solely to stop war and has done anything but…Unless you dont want to call Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan wars real wars…The US troops in Germany wouldn’t have lasted more than a few minutes in a Russian invasion. …Billions spent on a bankrupt strategy. .planning for a tank invasion, in other words for the last war…future wars will be fought in unplanned for ways…

It’s a joke to be the world police.

Europe and America are all moving towards a nation-first strategy. Decades of slow growth has Europe become less and less powerful in the world stage. The domestic pressure will force each country to focus on its own citizens instead of trying to control other countries.

China and India will become super powers, Europe will become secondary powers. US maybe able to maintain the #1 position, but its global influence will weaken.

But to the average Joe, they asks wtf with the world police? The video game obsessed young men and unemployed old men are ok to let other countries to have their own country to themselves.

There are defense strategies, for many countries, to position their satellites, ships round the clock monitoring and across the globe. Similarly, many countries have strategic relationship with other countries to keep their base in foreign soil. In case of any untoward issues, it is easy to strike those places for the benefit of country and allies.

US being strong on economy and strong in Technology, naturally would like to protect their interest and keep watching across the globe.

It becomes part of their over all strategy and US has to pay for it. Other that this, all other Military presence are paid by the requester.

We spend more operating and maintaining the equipment than we do troops.

Yeah sure… Or like they did at Benghazi–hire the local Libyans (who work for terrorist organizations) to protect the American embassy.

I’d stick to hiring people in the middle of the US at cheaper wages than the BA.

Trump has no ideologies. He doesn’t believe in anything other than himself and money. But because he doesn’t know the details and don’t intend to learn, he’s outsourcing a lot of decision making to his cabinet and informal “advisers”. There are some real crazy people around him. That’s the scary part. You never know what’s the real agenda of these people.

It’s widely assumed Trump is an isolationist. He doesn’t want to meddle with other countries. But then all of a sudden he’s calling Taiwan president and one of his advisers is in Taiwan right now, telling China to cool down, from Taiwan! Since Nixon no president has ever done anything close to that. What’s the goal here? To provoke China?

History is full of wars started by accidents. I don’t see US going to war with China. But that’s the point of black swans. Everybody thinks it won’t happen.

Trump seems to be cozying up to Russia and butting heads with China? If so that would be a very, very significant realignment after the Cold War, and deeply destabilizing. Is Trump willing to sacrifice American lives to defend Taiwan?

I don’t want to find out.

Trump just wants to ruffle Chinas feathers, he doesn’t care about Taiwan…


Then Taiwan is screwed.

The thing with Trump is that he’s so not into anything other than himself we don’t know who’s calling shots. Even though he doesn’t seem to care but he’s stuffing his cabinet with super hawks and ex-generals. These guys may want blood.

And then Trump may say something stupid that ruffles feathers a bit too much and crap can happen.

If Taiwan really believes Trump is actually going to do something for them then they are just too naive.

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Russia? The 80’s called and want their politics back.