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ABNB? Held or sold?
Now down 44% AHâŚ
WowâŚ. Iâm not a fan of puts on specific companies, since one rumor can blow up the trade. That one would have been insane. Thatâs reliably weird they are forecasting a sequential decline in revenue. I also donât get how they are profitable while some of their competitors are losing money like crazy.
This commenter has 5 indicators to predict a bottom.
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I thought the bottom was Mar 14. Very wrong ofc.
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Where does he actually state the indicators other than bearish sentiment? Itâs mostly someone patting their self on the back and throwing in quotes from subscribers to their paid service.
oh Iâd linked to a commenter on that piece who said
"I generally use five indicators to predict the bottom of a major correction or bear market.
- I look for a third-level Fibonacci Retracement number, which is now at 3,850 or so for the S&P500.
- Second, I want to see Morningstarâs Fair Value Index around 0.85 (currently at 0.88).
- Third, I want the VIX around 35 (currently at 30.2).
- Fourth, I want the daily RSI for the S&P at 30 or less (currently at 38.8).
- Fifth, I want to see CNNâs Fear & Greed Index below 25 (currently at 31). Given all of that, I see the S&P 500 falling another 200-300 points, which should put the bottom firmly in place. Gilburt sees a fall of only another 100-125 points. I think the dip will be a bit deeper."
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Thatâs cool. I bet the recovery wonât be even. The big question is will tech companies bounce back or will other sectors lead the recovery.
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So many people are deleveraging into cash or liquidating due to margin calls. Done?
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Thought Good Post and sharing
Weâve been in a thirteen year bull market. Buying the dip during this period has been great. However, investing at regular intervals has also been great!
Buying the dip isnât some secret strategy. Time is the secret strategy.
Things are easy until they arenât. The challenge is that we rarely know when things are going to be easy and when they are going to be hard.
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I stopped buying stock as strong fundamental & Future growth/return analysis is required, it is too hard to set assumptions to buy them. But, market big funds can pay their analysts, downgrade and upgrade within minutes of results, dropping them like hell. No catching falling knife helps!
No options, even to hedge as they need precision direction. Even with it, IV crush makes a loss.
Just buying generic/index ETFs such as VOO/QQQ, risky ones VGT/AVUV/TQQQ/SOXL and sector ETFs as swing trade. Finally ETFs are great and is inline with vanguard bogleheads principle.
For this, Time is the secret strategy.
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Inflation continues to rise.
Sigh sold more dogs today after seeing what happened to COIN and U.
Looking at 5 figure loss now 
overall.
Hope I can make it back if and when a TQQQ rally happens.
WS manages to crash AAPL below $150. Not yet into bear market territory.
We could be entering the worse case scenario of stagflation. Wages are going higher which will drive inflation higher. The government is going to spend $1.5T less than last year which is going to kill GDP growth. Iâm expecting a recession in Q1 and Q2 with inflation over 6%. Thatâs amazingly difficult to accomplish. We might not exit a recession until next year when yr/yr GDP comps donât include all the stimulus spending.
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If youâre holding TQQQ instead of QQQ long term, youâre betting that QQQ will return more than 11% CAGR. If QQQ returns less than 11% CAGR, TQQQ will underperform QQQ . If QQQ returns less than 7% CAGR, TQQQ will lose money.
This was proved by one Mathematics Ph.D person recently, writing his own thesis about it. He formulated an equation like this.
For TQQQ, best is to buy a deep bottom, never hold long, just swing trade.
Now, everyone knows FED wonât relax anything until Inflation under control. It takes many months, including recessionary periods, get back to bull run.
Knowing all these, big funds/bank started rebalancing (multi-billions) portfolios, making room for more cash holding from stocks.
Even if there is a bottom, the jump may happen 10% but again it will be temporary. We can expect like 2007-2009 downturn, of course the sector/company drops may be different.
What we can do is âUnderstand the reality, Tighten the belt and be prepared to face itâ !
Good Luck.
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Feel more like dotcom bust. Expect many hot companies to go bankrupt.
The bear market for high growth stocks has started since Feb 2021, started crashing from Nov 2021.
When to back up the truck? Is extreme fear yet? Fear can always get even more extreme!
I think have to wait for Fed who is unlikely to do anything favorable to the stock market for next 6 months.
Market has panic. Donât think has capitulated because fintwitters are talking about buying the dip. Need them to say avoid market at all cost.
Where are we? Based on bloggersâ comment, some of you are in denial, some in panic. No signs of capitulation⌠any1 in 100% cash?
This is closer to the bottom than the top. Look at the Nasdaq 100 and S&P500 PE ratios in context historically, and in context of interest rates. The values are low. Cheaper than even after the dotcom bubble burst.
The only way current state get worse is if high inflation stays. So itâs really a bet of which direction do you think inflation is headed.
If you want to be conservative, wait for inflation markers to start subsiding. The market was waiting for figures these week, and when they didnât go lower, more sell of. However most inflation metrics did start subsiding except for energy (high oil prices). I think this is a positive trend.
Bond yields are falling. It appears the market is betting the fed will blink or only at least stop increasing rates after the next 2 hikes. The fed has shown a total unwillingness to surprise the market with rate moves that arenât already priced into the market. I think the bond trade is off now
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Any1 think market is rotating out of big techs to high growth?