Inflation:
Demand pull: Fed printing + re-opening economy
Supply push: War + China’s zero Covid policy
Fed has started QT but is one of the four drivers. Need the other three to cooperate.
Re-opening: Probably last a few more months.
War: Russia has lost. Wait for Russia to find a way to declare victory and end the war.
China: Policy seems to work. Starting to re-open.
Market keeps going down because it is in fear, and has to let fear runs its course.
The US Dollar is going down fast. Seems to be pricing in a moderation of rate hikes. Constructive for stocks and cryptos.
Right now, people are betting that the fed will blink. Powell has been pretty clear in his comments. He’s said a soft landing isn’t a guarantee. He’s also said slowing down inflation is top priority even if it causes an increase in unemployment. Something needs to give over the next 6-8 weeks. Either the fed will need to pause rate hikes after the next two, or the bond market is in for a huge move.
Insider buying spree.
Fear is an incredible force.
Just realized FANGMANT dropped by 30%-60% from late Mar/ early Apr.
Fear! Zillow and Redfin estimate of Austin houses are declining too.
Oddly, S&P hardly dropped by 20%. GFC 2008, S&P dropped by 50%.
Government doesn’t create wealth… just steals it or gives it away
Fintwitters say is a counter trend that last a few weeks and then a new low. No selling any.
the recession is over! who hoo! 
We’re probably in the middle of one.
Wow, the market is rallying. I thought the world was ending. Inflation data is a little lower and everyone is happy.
my June 30th bull put spreads on QQQ and SPY are making money.
I was worried that I’d be in the hole again.
I did lose ~200$ on a call option trade elsewhere (some tech names still haven’t recovered).
Anyone has a good explanation why S&P has not declined 50% as what it did during dotcom bust and 2008 GFC.
Unemployment is under 4%. Inflation is a totally different crisis than those were.
Companies aren’t failing the way the did in dotcom era. Their valuations are being cut, but there are a lot of cash flow positive companies that got crushed. They are in zero danger of failing. They’re just growing a little slower. The fact they are still growing and just hiring at a slower pace is bullish.
In 2008, the economic system almost failed and unemployment was high. People are complaining about higher interest rates now. They are still low from a historical perspective, and people can actually borrow money. The system froze in 2008.
Sentiment was worse than it was at the Covid peak which is insane.
We’re still one bad piece of data away from re-testing the lows, but this whole move lower has been highly irrational.
The era of free money is over or at least on pause.
The stock market is always irrational. Too easy to trade. Make trades more expensive and slow down the process and it will become more rational. How about a hyper capital gains tax on trades under 30 days. Let’s say 50%… would make for a more stable market.
’Lots of companies are going to get vaporized’: The tech titans of Silicon Valley are in serious trouble — and they’re going to take the rest of the stock market down with them
