Trading wars impact

Trump may have used trade to force China to force North Korea to talk to Trump. In terms of trade, there’s not much to squeeze China since most of the profit from made in China is actually earned by US multinationals. China gets jobs from the trade and US companies got most of the profit. Those jobs won’t come back and they will move to Vietnam and other countries.

US economy and Chinese economy are coupled tightly though the upper hand is in US. China may be forced to help US before its domestic demand is enough to sustain the growth.

Trump doesn’t care about ideological differences which some extremists may not agree.

That’s utter non-sense. The trade is a tiny percent of GDP for both countries.

There’s not much competition between the stuff imported from and exported to China. The goal of the trade war is not about trade. Tariff is only meaningful when there is intense competition between the products from 2 countries. The real purpose of trade war seems to be geopolitical benefits.

I think the Huawei ban is similar to Iran accusations. There might be some radicals
around Trump. Fortunately he decided no war against Iran

There’s already competition emerging from other countries.

Other countries are competing against China. The trade war is just trying to select winners among foreign countries, that’s why I said the purpose of the trade war is geopolitical concerns, not US-China trade

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China will scrap foreign ownership caps in the domestic financial industry from 2020, a year earlier than previously expected, Premier Li Keqiang said on Tuesday, in a fresh gesture to woo foreign investors, just days after agreeing to another truce in the year-long trade war with the United States.

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Opening financial market is actually good for China long term. Trump has unintentionally helping Xi.

It’s good for US financial firms who will finally be allowed to compete. That’s how fair trade should be.

I think they will open up the security brokerages only. Those are pretty tiny. China needs to open up the insurance markets. That’s where the big money lies.

@manch is impatient :stuck_out_tongue: Opening a floodgate would be too sudden and destabilizing. Let the market blooms :heart_eyes:

China may not be able to lift capital control for the next 20 years. Sad. :cry:

What insurance? Life insurance, car insurance, home insurance, medical insurance?

There is no trade agreement yet, why do they announce it now?

Americans love gesture.

China has been talking about opening up financial markets for years. Why not warm them up and announce them again to make Trump happy?

If I remember right there aren’t any state owned stock brokers. But there are a couple state owned insurance firms and almost all banks are state owned. Chinese are overpaying for insurance. Western insurance firms lose money on premiums in exchange for floats to invest. Chinese insurance firms make tons on premiums but no so many profitable venues to invest. It’s the opposite.

Xi’s Leading China Toward Stagnation

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-13/xi-s-leading-china-s-economy-into-the-middle-income-trap

Xi is leading China towards a cliff. I am more and more convinced China will never catch up to US in nominal GDP.

There are really multiple China’s. The major tier-1 cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are first world. But the huge rural hinterlands are stuck in 3rd world. Many only know about one part but ignore or simply don’t know about the other parts.

HK is like Singapore :grinning:

SG income is quite a bit higher than HK.

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