Trading wars impact

These two contradict each other. What ends up happening is we will push inflation higher and that in turn forces the Fed slam on the brake. Remember China and technology are the two big reasons why inflation is so low. Remove China out of the equation and inflation will shoot up.

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Trump would have done so many mistakes or making so many mistakes. I am not defending Trump for all his actions.

I did not even like relaxing “dodd frank act” and “Obama care”…and so many other changes he or rep. made.

But, I appreciate the two issues (so far)

  1. Corporate tax reduction: A major change in USA.
  2. Tariff discussion, Immigration…etc: He is president of USA and speaking for his people (not global).

He is great in taking this and acting on this firmly as I understand what he is trying to do.

Other than that, I am not a worshiper or of any kind.

If people upskill to higher paying jobs, the jobs at the very bottom will get automated out of existence. The jobs at the bottom can’t support a higher wage. You’re already seeing it with app ordering and more kitchen automation. Overall, it’s great for the country if those people upskill out of the lowest paying jobs.

I don’t see any evidence of upskilling happening in any meaningful scale. Where’s the kitchen automation you are talking about? How’s that compared to the tens if not hundreds of thousands of people employed in the “gig economy” driving Uber or delivering Instacarts making less than minimum wage?

You can look at the education pipeline to see if there’s any budding upskilling happening. How many STEM college grads are we producing? How many enrolled in vocational training programs? We have had a shortage of programmers for the last 30 or 40 years and yet CS grads in 2015 is barely above the level of 2005:

Our society as a whole is still producing a massive amount of liberal arts students waiting to take jobs at Starbucks or driving Ubers.

My beef with Trump policy is I have yet to see evidence how his policy helps those who need help e.g. midwest guys. His policy seems to benefit those guys who don’t really need his help.

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I don’t even see anybody benefiting at all. Maybe the short term stock market will go up and we stock investors benefited? But I fear the mid to long term price we will be paying down the road.

Ignorant people cheer anything they hear or see that is beyond their imagination of how they see their own world.

I believe that tariffs talks would have been in secret, give anybody a timeline to comply, they apply the brakes. But no! We have a POPULIST <-----insert your socialist, communits, fascist, you name it here…just throwing anything on the wall to please his small group of Americans supporting his rantings.

Is this the person you support?

"Woodward’s book, as reported by Business Insider, also said Cohn was shocked that Trump did not seem to understand how U.S. federal debt worked. The book outlined a November 2016 conversation about how the Federal Reserve was likely to increase interest rates.

Trump said: “We should just go borrow a lot of money, hold it, and then sell it to make money."

Cohn explained that this would increase the deficit and actually add to the debt, and was “astounded at Trump’s lack of basic understanding” about what government borrowing meant.

“It was clear that Trump did not understand the way the U.S. government debt cycle balance sheet worked,” Woodward wrote.

Cohn was the latest figure to emerge from Woodward’s book to cast aspersions on Trump’s intelligence. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, according to the book, told associates that Trump “had the understanding of a fifth or sixth grader.”

Former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency Scott Pruitt said the president lacked knowledge “when it comes to things like the Constitution and rule of law.” Meanwhile, former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Katie Walsh reportedly said working with him was “like trying to figure out what a child wants.”

Kitchen automation has been happening. They don’t even flip burgers at McDonald’s. The grills cook both sides at the same time. It’s faster and requires less worker time. Those are the small steps. Companies are working on it. If the fight for $15 success, then you’ll see it dramatically accelerate thanks to a more attractive ROI.

We need to be more aggressive in pushing it. We should be pushing vocational programs over art degrees. Not everyone can academically handle a STEM degree. Non-STEM degree holders need a way to make a living. Minimum wage fast food and retail jobs aren’t going to cut it. It’ll probably take 1-2 decades to really accelerate it in a meaningful scale. In the last 12 months, we’ve added more manufacturing jobs than anytime since 1995. It is starting to happen. Manufacturing plants don’t get built over night.

What do you call the highest manufacturing job creation since 1995?

Did it decline under obama and trump single handedly turned it around with his tax cuts and tariffs?

Or is it just because the economy has been improving after the Great Recession?

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It’s accelerated quite a bit. You may remember Obama famously saying those jobs aren’t ever coming back and joking about Trump not having a magic wand.

If min wages keep going up jobs will disappear…Replaced by automation instead of overseas workers.
My buddy already picks grapes by machine…Machines can do the trimming too…Soon all farming will be done by machine…Same with fast food, retail…lots of jobs will be lost…What are those people going to do?

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Sound like the increase in manufacturing job creation is an initiative of Obama.

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They’ll need to transition to different work. It’s happened at different times in history. We transitioned from people farming to the industrial age.

Obama literally said those jobs aren’t coming back. There was no initiative to create manufacturing jobs. He told people to go do something different.

If stupid people would have listened to:…“they need to transition to different work”…aka coal miners being told to be trained to do that transition…smart people wouldn’t be objecting to anything. But the idiots had to listen to "I will create more jobs for you…in the coal mine industry that is not happening, and which is detrimental to our environment.

That shows the folly of setting industrial policy and trying to make decisions for private enterprises.

The resurgence of manufacturing has more to do with abundance of cheap energy because of shale than anything due to Obama or Trump. The ink on tax cuts legislation is not even dry yet and tariffs just started to get implemented.

Link?

Google? Don’t remember where I picked that up.

Wow, there’s almost 7M open jobs now. People quitting to take a new job is increasing. It’d be interesting to see how many change careers due to upskill vs. take the same type job. Either way, most people change jobs for more money.

Ford to Trump: That’s Not How It Works

How many company warnings will it take to convince President Donald Trump that his trade war is backfiring?

In the months since Trump ratcheted up trade tensions with both China and erstwhile U.S. allies such as Canada and Europe, there’s been no stampede of manufacturers back to America’s shores. There has, however, been a growing chorus of complaints about the profit pinch wrought by U.S. and retaliatory tariffs as well as some early warnings about price increases and job cuts. Ford Motor Co., Apple Inc. and Intel Corp. are the latest to rebut Trump’s trade philosophy and lay bare his misjudgment of globalized supply-chain management, echoing grievances from the likes of General Motors Co. and Harley-Davidson Inc.

Relocating supply chains is a lot more time-intensive and expensive than firing off a tweet. Eventually, Trump’s trade wars will force multinational companies to adjust their price-arbitrage analyses, and who knows, maybe in some cases that will mean shifting production to the U.S. But at what cost? If such rejiggering makes U.S. companies less competitive, any local jobs they may have created could become redundant anyway.

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