How much has the Chinese economy been hurt until now during the 2018 trade war?
Glenn Luk, B.S. Economics & Computer Science, University of Pennsylvania
Answered 8h ago
In terms of capital markets impact, the effect has been meaningful because markets appear to be pricing in a certain degree of escalation in the trade war. Indeed, it feels to me like Chinese equity markets are not only pricing in full-blown tariffs on essentially all bi-lateral U.S.-China trade, but possibly further escalation as well.
However, in terms of real-world economic impact, the effect has been fairly small thus far. Part of this is because only the first round of tariffs have gone into effect (i.e. on around $50 billion in imports). A further $200 billion in imports is expected to be subject to tariffs starting next week (September 24th).
But the bigger reason is that China is simply much less dependent on its export sector today than it was a decade ago on the eve of the Global Financial Crisis.
There is no doubt that export-led industrialization was a key pillar of China’s economic modernization[1]. Nevertheless, at this stage in its economic development, the returns are diminishing. Export-led industrialization is key for poor/developing countries because domestic demand is not sufficient (or sophisticated enough) to drive the industrialization process. But as I will describe in more detail down below, China’s domestic demand has reached enough critical mass to drive continued innovation[2].
Moreover, China is less dependent on the U.S. relative to the rest of the world. In 2007, the U.S. accounted for 19.1% of China’s exports and 7.3% of its imports[3]. In 2016, this export percentage had fallen to 18.4% while the imports percentage had increased to 8.5%[4].
Chinese policymakers have been seeking to reducing the economy’s dependency on exports and the U.S. consumer since the Global Financial Crisis[5]. To do this, they sought to (i) increase trade links with the rest of the world, especially developing/emerging regions like Southeast Asia and Africa and (ii) shift the key growth driver from net exports to consumption and services. These are the key objectives behind (i) the “One Belt, One Road” initiative and (ii) the liberalization of consumer finance and other pro-consumer policy directives starting around the beginning of the Xi administration.