Trading wars impact

This is what happened so far in china, china gov is desperate for cash now
from my relative previously owned a toy manufacturing factory in china. A lot of factory are going or pending to go bankrupt. A lot of debt are unable to collect. we’ll see some chain reaction soon. or never since china gov will probably hide it.

加徵個人入息稅 + 中國人全球資產徵稅
加徵遊戲稅35%
加徵演員稅6% >>> 45%
加徵骨灰去向保證金3000蚊
加徵電子商務法10%稅+17%增值稅

AFAIK central government has been trying to stop this shadow banking for a long time. Those local governments refuse to listen.

天高皇帝远

Alibaba’s Jack Ma backs down from promise to Trump to bring 1 million jobs to the U.S.

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Trump’s fault. He sabotaged America again.

Whether Alibaba needs help from Trump or Trump needs alibaba?

It is all who needs whom? Trump is masterminded !

武功再高 也怕菜刀
jack ma is completely control by the communist party, he will do what he told to do .
china is betting everything november election democrat will take back control

Good bet.

Even if the Democrats take the house nothing will change

I think at least the tactics will change. Also trump will be in such deep shit he may not have time to create troubles.

I am looking forward to trump’s tax return.

I think is a fake promise to test Trump. China has a long term plan to move away from depending on USA market and from an export oriented to a domestic heavy economy. The launch of Belt and Route initiative signals above. China prefers to work with many smaller nations where China can be the focus point with those nations revolving around China. So Trump response can be viewed as a response to Belt and Route & the China 2025 initiative. Those two initiatives seem to isolate USA. Somehow, I think manch is correct. Xi might be a little over ambitious. Should have continued DXP’s lie low (forgot the Chinese words :slight_smile: ) policy.

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韜光養晦

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He has no choice. Ditto for Pony Ma and Robin Li. CPC dislikes immensely successful self-made private entrepreneurs. Is a slap over the state initiative to make state-owned enterprise successful. Jack Ma needs to swim with CPC and is best to let go of control of Alibaba, soon Pony Ma and Robin Li have to do likewise.

yup, or else china is going to communist everything jack has.

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Trump’s new tariffs bite Walmart

Crate & Barrel CEO Says Tariffs Won’t Send Production to U.S.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/crate-barrel-ceo-says-tariffs-won-t-send-production-to-u-s

As the U.S.-China trade war intensifies, home goods and furniture retailer Crate & Barrel doesn’t foresee changes in sourcing for its merchandise – at least for now. If shifting production to another country becomes necessary, however, it’s unlikely to go to the U.S.

“Other than upholstery, where we have a great manufacturing base in the U.S., some of those products would be very difficult to manufacture domestically,” Chief Executive Officer Neela Montgomery said in an interview with Emma Chandra on Bloomberg TV. “So in reality it’ll move to another Asian market or to Europe.”

Bad news. Tariff war with whichever nations get the manufacturing of parts :slight_smile:

The real purpose is not trade. China already agreed on a deal months ago only to have trump walked away the last minute. And then on the eve of resuming high level talk trump went ahead with additional tariffs.

Pretty obvious the real aim is to suppress China. That’s a very dangerous road that can lead to WW3.

Well, Trump might be doing the right thing. Do it while USA is still much stronger than China militarily and economically. Wait another 5-10 years might be too late. Any wars then could be both perish. Is why I am beginning to side with your 韜光養晦 view. China is not ready to face head-on with USA.

US will still be No.1 no matter what China does. American system is just superior to the bastard Socialist/Capitalist system in China, and our demographics trend is much better than China’s. So I really don’t see any need to fear China’s rise.

In Hong Kong and China, it’s very common to see this comment about the trade war:

傷敵一千,自損八百

“You kill 1000 enemies, but lose 800 of your own soldiers”

I don’t think that works out well for anybody.

How much has the Chinese economy been hurt until now during the 2018 trade war?

Glenn Luk

Glenn Luk, B.S. Economics & Computer Science, University of Pennsylvania

Answered 8h ago

In terms of capital markets impact, the effect has been meaningful because markets appear to be pricing in a certain degree of escalation in the trade war. Indeed, it feels to me like Chinese equity markets are not only pricing in full-blown tariffs on essentially all bi-lateral U.S.-China trade, but possibly further escalation as well.

However, in terms of real-world economic impact, the effect has been fairly small thus far. Part of this is because only the first round of tariffs have gone into effect (i.e. on around $50 billion in imports). A further $200 billion in imports is expected to be subject to tariffs starting next week (September 24th).

But the bigger reason is that China is simply much less dependent on its export sector today than it was a decade ago on the eve of the Global Financial Crisis.

There is no doubt that export-led industrialization was a key pillar of China’s economic modernization[1]. Nevertheless, at this stage in its economic development, the returns are diminishing. Export-led industrialization is key for poor/developing countries because domestic demand is not sufficient (or sophisticated enough) to drive the industrialization process. But as I will describe in more detail down below, China’s domestic demand has reached enough critical mass to drive continued innovation[2].

Moreover, China is less dependent on the U.S. relative to the rest of the world. In 2007, the U.S. accounted for 19.1% of China’s exports and 7.3% of its imports[3]. In 2016, this export percentage had fallen to 18.4% while the imports percentage had increased to 8.5%[4].

Chinese policymakers have been seeking to reducing the economy’s dependency on exports and the U.S. consumer since the Global Financial Crisis[5]. To do this, they sought to (i) increase trade links with the rest of the world, especially developing/emerging regions like Southeast Asia and Africa and (ii) shift the key growth driver from net exports to consumption and services. These are the key objectives behind (i) the “One Belt, One Road” initiative and (ii) the liberalization of consumer finance and other pro-consumer policy directives starting around the beginning of the Xi administration.

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