Inside the message is clear. His own survey matches polls !
Despite Trump’s claim that he doesn’t believe the polls, his San Antonio research team spends $100,000 a week on surveys (apart from polls commissioned out of Trump Tower) and has sophisticated models that run daily simulations of the election. The results mirror those of the more reliable public forecasters—in other words, Trump’s staff knows he’s losing. Badly. “Nate Silver’s results have been similar to ours,” says Parscale, referring to the polling analyst and his predictions at FiveThirtyEight, “except they lag by a week or two because he’s relying on public polls.” The campaign knows who it must reach and is still executing its strategy despite the public turmoil: It’s identified 13.5 million voters in 16 battleground states whom it considers persuadable, although the number of voters shrinks daily as they make up their minds.
Plain and simple, The Donald blew it. If he simply had a good strategy and focused game plan against Hillary, kept his temperment and outlandish behavior down, he probably would have a real fighting chance. As a business leader, he should know that he simply F’d it up all by himself. Sorry Donald, you’re not hired!!!
If Trump wins, he will stop Rate raise, drop tax rate. Economy goes full swing for one year sure, then we will all go for downturn/upturn depending on what he does.
If Hillary wins, she has to stop rate raise which she has not committed yet. Economy goes down if rate is raised no matter what she does !
I think there will be no policy changes within at least a year, no matter who wins. I am neutral to Trump/Hillary in terms of mid term economy. Economy will do whatever it wants to do based on its own factors, neither Trump/Hillary will be able to do much.
I am only concerned about the short term psychological effect. If Trump wins, will SF bay buyers and sellers do some irrational selling or stop buying based on strong dislike of Trump?
I will again point you to Sam Wong’s site at Princeton. Much higher quality and less drama than 538. The race has reverted to the old mean of Hillary leading by a comfortable but not overwhelming margin.
All polls have sampling errors. And when you have a torrent of polls coming in in the final days of the race, you are bound to have outliners in both directions. The media loves a tight race and will highlight any evidence they can find to show a tight race.
Good. Everyone should try to raise some cash now. In case Trump wins, let’s see whether there will be a fire sale due to Trump scare. If not, we can wait for the Trump recession as Manch predicted. Haha
No, I didn’t predict a recession if Trump won. I just say the health of the nation’s economy will take a turn for the worse. A lot worse. Whether that will tip the country into recession I don’t know. We have a lot going for us.
Well, I’m almost certain that there will be a recession in the next 4 years, no matter who will be the president. It is impossible to have an economy without a recession in 12 years.
My opinion is that the recession is not caused by presidents, it’s caused by economy itself.
I recently posted something about the length of economic expansion. We can easily go for another 10 years without a recession. I didn’t factor in a trump win though.
We are immune to a certain degree with what’s going on out there. Believe me folks, it’s getting very serious. The face of this country is changing, and not changing for the better but the worse cycle in the US history. All the respect towards people of different race or color but White is gone. What Trump has built is a world of culpability, of pointing fingers towards those who don’t have a clue what’s going on but surviving. It only takes one incident to make a race or nationality the guilty part of this equation. A criminal incident? Oh! It was a Black person, no, a Hispanic, no, an Asian, no, a Mexican!
If Trump wins, I promise you this: He will be under more scrutiny, more criticism, more danger than anyone else in this world. He has promised to change the entire American system and he said he will do it “pronto”. From deporting undocumented people next day he gets elected, thus proving he is an idiot, to kick everybody in congress, of course, not the ones voting for him, which indeed are signs of him being a tyrant and a vindictive mother… and the rest is well known.
Caucasians are tired of diversity (somehow it means less jobs/ promotion for white male), free trade (many nations don’t reciprocate, and working class losing their jobs because of that), globalization (those who are not able to adapt are trapped in an endless deteriorating situation) and spiraling cost of healthcare (affect working class most). Politicians need to do something, nation is becoming unstable. Whatever US does, it affects the rest of the world a lot, everybody is watching.
IMO, If US is not going on war, then we should be fine with Trump. We will see daily sensational news ! US will withstand the pressure as it withstood Bush Period.
If he looses, Trump will be fully sidelined by other Rep.members in the party. They are waiting for Trump’s failure and vice versa.
On any case,
Last minute polls are skewed and it is not predicting properly as Media/TVs needs to say close tie/poll to increase media rating by creating sensational news. This was what happened during 2008 and 2012 too when Obama was clearly seen winner on both elections.
TV/Media hypes are exactly like our Analysts Ratings on companies, each one is directly/indirectly linked to candidacy and the funding.
The biggest risk or Trump (and biggest gift to Hillary) is that he alienated from immigrants, Muslims, colored and women voters. No matter what media polls suggests, these four segments will not turn towards Trump accidentally or by any other means. In addition, Rep internal disputes from Trump create a non-function-network rip the Rep voters divided. This may cause more Senator/House of Representatives swing towards Dem. party .
I do not even wonder if Hillary comes out landslide/historic victory !
But the question remains is “what is the benefit for common people or business community or US economy?”.
Unless the next president resolves “US Manufacturing shift/workers anger” by stopping jobs movement overseas, US will have tough time. Adding tax or corporate tax will not resolve unless economic benefit of moving jobs to overseas is curtailed.
It looks like the FBI won’t even be able to look at those emails before Nov 8th. And it seems none of those emails were from Hillary or to Hillary. And still Comey felt the need to make a big statement out of nothing, while at the same time staying mum on their investigation into Trump’s Russian ties.
