Uber IPO impact on Bay Area RE

If UBER IPO goes smooth, it will create wealth.

IMO, they won’t go IPO in year 2019, esp before Jun 2019

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Didn’t they already confidentially file? That starts a clock. They only have so many days to IPO or they have to re-file.

When tech’s highest-valued companies finally go public next year, they will unleash billions of liquid dollars into the market and make 2019 a year of incredible wealth creation.

From thin air? More like transfer of hard-earned savings to Uber engineers.

An early employee might use the $20 million he makes to buy a new home and price you out of a neighborhood.

Won’t price me out but it would screw me as a landlord since there will be less demand for rentals. Assuming many of these guys are renting previously. If they use it to buy rentals, increase in rental property. Very bad days for landlords. I’ve gone from cash flow positive to negative since dropping 10% to get a new tenant. I foresee cash flow will become even more negative.

No wealth creation, merely transferring of wealth.

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Yes, they may have options to withdraw right?

VCs, who is behind IPOs, won’t let UBER to file IPO. Pre-IPO VCs Blocking period is the issue.

This is my understanding, correct me if I am wrong.

  1. If UBER files IPO at 120Bln value, Underwriters need to pay UBER 120Bln when IPO is not subscribed.

  2. They may need to float into market to get back the money. Mr.Market will react badly as everyone lost money

  3. Stock tanks further in 6 months, may be will lose 50% to 75% of money in 6 month under recession

  4. VCs can not sell at loss after block period is lifted.

If VCs analyze the data, they won’t let them go IPO. They will ask CEOs, CFOs work further and later file IPO.

Withdrawing would be hugely negative though. That’d kill employee morale. Underwriters don’t guarantee a valuation. They make a recommendation. They can even change pricing very late in the process. Ultimately the company decides the price though.

Yes, it will hurt, entire team may go out too. I do not think company looks at employee morale as prime objective, esp in start up, but CEOs, CFOs undergo lot of pressures from the board (mainly VCs supported). It is the money wielding power that does all the nasty business work.

Even if it goes IPOs, lot of lawsuits will follow once stock tanks.

On any case, retail investors must be careful.

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Just wait one more month, LYFT & UBER can not come out, whatever I guess !

@tomato @ptiemann

Chime in. you guys think these IPO’s will lift the market further over here in this micro region even though we have headwinds nationally.

2019 looks to be the Big Bang year for tech IPO. Slack, Uber, Airbnb, Lyft already conformed. Later Palantir, Pinterest, WeWork lining up.

All but WeWork are in Bay Area. And among the Bay Area companies only Palantir is in PA, the rest are in SF.

BTW the biggest support or boost for global RE is monetary policies. China is already relaxing and Fed also suddenly turned dovish. Easy money will make its way into all assets and RE will benefit.

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A house ( Tear Down ) came on market in Mountain View and received close to 20 offers

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Mountain-View/211-Monroe-Dr-94040/home/2121120?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

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Housing sprung back alive!!! :scream:

Went Waaaay Waaaay over

Lot is 12,090 square feet.

Asking price is too low. Lot worth $2.4M.

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