What if google refuses to sell that technology to Uber and instead starts its own taxi service. Or they lease it to Uber at an expensive price. Or worse, they buy lyft and let them use the technology.
Your win-win scenario is for efficient allocation of resources. It assumes that no mean competition exists. Hardly the case.
No I dont. Care to explain?
Thats true. This is a meaningful argument against Uber. Yes, great companies on the innovation curve can simply die because of culture that makes them dysfunctional. Too much ambitions and too much money can lead to such a culture. Effective leadership is key. I saw apples growth first hand after iphone launch, and I was surprised at how they manage it so effectively. 50% yoy growth in revenues and no bumps in delivery or slacks in innovation.
Most of achievements, can take time and money from you. That can leave you, as a company, in no way to respond to economic changes. Any change in the economy activity, say a 2008 event can wipe you out completely.
Uber, as any other company, is relying on more people joining its services, any decline, they are doomed.
The following probably gives an idea of Uber culture.
When an Uber self-driving car ran a red light last year, they blamed and suspended the car’s driver, even though it was the car’s software that malfunctioned, according to two former employees
An earlier post on Uber leaving CA
Yeah but it was the employee’s job to monitor the beta software driving the car. It ended up in a political nightmare for Uber because of the driver’s failure to stop the car.
Not sure if it was here I argued with someone who didn’t understand how the testing of self-driving cars work. Driver sees red light, Car sees red light, signals “Imma gonna stop”, everything is cool. Driver sees red light, car does not signal “imma stop,” driver needs to hit the brakes. At this point, the car is telling the driver everything it intends to do or is currently doing.
Frankly, I still didnt get the analogy about climbing Mt Everest but I get your point after your explanation. Yes, Uber is relying on economy to not tank for their expansion. If it does I am sure they will have to do a lot of things to keep working and it will pose a severe threat to their survival.
If their self driving car tech doesn’t deliver, I’m not sure what’s left of Uber.
There’s absolutely zero barrier of entry for customer to switch to another ride hailing service.
I use lyft and uber and it’s from the exact same pool of drivers.
It could be like hotmail, bringing a good service to its customer but ultimately the market is captured by another player (gmail, etc)
This is key… is there an economic moat? If not, a predatory company could just wait for Uber to develop the market to a profitable proposition before jumping in with their software (or buy out Lyft or buyout key Uber software engineers) and grab its drivers or self-driving partner-manufacturers. Btw, is the cost of the software development (much?) cheaper than the cost of developing the ride-hailing market?
Hopefully is not like email… can’t make much money 
Network effect is Uber’s most. Exactly like eBay:
Drivers want to be on the site with most users.
Users want to use the service with the most drivers.
That’s why uber is aggressive in killing all the other competitors. Because after the current batch of competitors like Lyft are killed no other car call site will ever get funded. No more competitors for uber.
That’s why I think Uber’s economics is sound. The biggest problem is its toxic culture. That will kill uber. Now I regret not buying into Lyft.
Uber and Lyft are not listed on stock exchange.
Once you develop a market for this long, you only have the capabilities to get the maximum out of it. What incentives to use for which city at what time in what month to get the best drivers. Thats why developing market (expansion) is important, not fleet maintenance. Software is not the key. Data (all types) is. Ask google on what moat they have on a crawler search software.
It is not like ebay though. Ebay and facebook’s network effect are huge.
For facebook, you want to connect with your friends, which are already on facebook. You might be able to convince a few of them to join other social media (google plus), but eventually you just stick to the place where people engage on a daily basis.
For ebay, both buyers and sellers do not want to go to a dead market place.
For ride hailing service, the drivers just sign up for which ever company that give them orders and profit. And they can be doing work for multiple bidders since they are not employees.
For users it’s just download a new app and link your credit card / apple pay.
The barrier for signing up ebay / linking bank account to paypal / changing seller’s automation software for selling are non-existent for ride hailing service.
This is only true if VC thinks that uber cannot be unseated like ebay / facebook.
But what prevents someone with tech like cruise (startup bought by GM for 1B) and comma.ai (Elon wants to acquire-hire but failed) to enter this space?
The service takes engineering effort and money but doesn’t require Billions+ investment.
Lyft at one time let public buy its shares. The allotment must be tiny but still that’s pre IPO stock.
Another exhibit of Uber’s toxic culture. This company is going to die. No question.
I bet cab companies are worse…Cab drivers are the lowest of the low…I bet their supervisors are even worse. .Remember Danny Devito on taxi…Uber is a swarmy cab company…what a shock. .
Market?
Many uber drivers make below minimum wage BEFORE expenses:
https://medium.com/the-wtf-economy/not-cool-uber-194198bed715#.btxyk1djk
Why the math of uber doesn’t add up:
All of the drivers are subsidizing your ride by being too stupid (or too desperate) to understand vehicle costs. On top of all of this, Uber is STILL LOSING MONEY. Unreal.
And as was mentioned before, Uber has no moat. It is a potential race to the bottom, with the winner being whomever can replicate the Uber app as cheaply as possible.
I know some people who are doing good. And, as any other business or enterprise, some do it good, some nothing, and some make it big. It’s all about the time you put into it.
I am in contact with some people developing some apps that if you knew, it would blow your mind. Some are coming from China, and moving into the US.
Uber dilemma tells me something: Anything related to companies using an application are in the early stages and some will die a painful death. Which ones? Time will tell you.
Now, can you in your noble heart tell Comcast why I need to hook up an ethernet cable from the router to my computer so I can enjoy those “wireless” 100 MBPs or whatever?
Try my new app Hailr – it will get you the closest ride from Uber, Lyft, EasyTaxi, etc. for the lowest price. Hailr - the ride aggregator.
Another looking like Uber…EasyTaxi? WTH?
See? This is what happens, you develop an idea, and others copy it with different structure or name. You start to share the market with another look alike, you’re doomed!