Valuation for SFH next to top schools

This is FOMO.

Okay, I do not know how much changes will come to Cupertino or RBA. It is crazy and won’t long last. But, I clearly see recession/correction in USA, Stopped my sons from buying home asking them to save/grow funds. I am ready to risk or taking speculative way.

Based on same speculation, I sold few of my real estates, paid off all home loans! But, that is my own speculative outlook !

You can screen shot and check back after an year.

Any way, this beyond my focus and do not like to update any more.

BTW: Not a stock or real estate or financial advice.

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Sorry, this is not FOMO.

@silvermember has asked us for opinions about buying a house for his family. This is a long term buy and hold investment, not a Dogecoin or meme stock trade. Please read my post again - IMO, he should buy if he intends to hold for at least 10 years. By doing so, he will come out ahead, even if there is a recession and price drop 6 months after he buys.

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Don’t know where price will go in 6 months. But usually there will be fewer buyers because folks like to buy before school starts. So we should see the peak of RE transaction volume this month in July.

Fewer buyers means less competition and as a buyer you will feel less pressure to overbid on a lemon. It’s easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment when 50 other hungry buyers are bidding at the same time. It’s easy to make mistake and thus regret later on.

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FOMO sentiment will get into sellers now leading to more inventory. Buyers have less head winds ahead – mortgage rates are not going increase anytime soon affecting affordability, closing before school year pressure dies off, and there is also nagging sentiment of 3rd wave / recession / what is happening now is a small bubble. Short term we should expect a slow down – especially for houses that are not super appealing on first look, but have a good bones / upside potential.

Even if long term, $100-150k price benefit is too huge !

I do not suggest anyone to buy homes during crazy biddings!

Thank all for the suggestion.

Honestly, @SVRE and @Jil are both right. I have real needs to buy a house with good school, but FOMO is a definitely a subconscious catalyze.

In any case, I decided to accept the cons of close proximity to schools. I think I will go ahead to bid, but with a that price I feel comfortable with, rather than what I think required to win.

Thanks all again, I love the diverse perspective from you all!

Good luck with your offer and hope you get it at your comfortable price!!

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Looks like the seller got more than what they were expecting.

I guess stocks are feeding bay area real estate and we are going to see this trend till interest rates go up.

Damn, I heard from my agent someone offer $3.48M and I thought that was crazy… $3.606 is way too much in my opinion…

Wow, that’s a whopper. Sold for almost $1M above an already high asking price of $2.68M. More than what any of us predicted on this thread.

Wonder if this fall and next spring will see further 10-15% rise in RBA home prices, since interest rates remain low and stocks are high (AAPL hit an ATH today at valuation exceeding $2.5T)

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$1.255M to $3.606M over 17 years = 6.4% annualized appreciation which is at the low end of 6-8%. Where is this house? Not in RBA?

It’s in Cupertino, very much in RBA, few miles from Apple spaceship HQ.

Since it is a larger and hence, more expensive, than median house for the area, 6.4% annualized appreciation is quite respectable. Seller has done well with this one.

This one got @7.95-8% annual compounded growth
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/4322-Cassio-Ct-94555/home/976660#property-history

@9.47%
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/4533-Lodovico-Ct-94555/home/1944165#property-history

Yes, but these SFHs in Fremont are much cheaper properties to begin with - they are half the price of the Cupertino home. Faster appreciation rate is not surprising for cheaper properties.

I would expect going forward that the appreciation of the Cupertino home would slow down below 6.4% - maybe it will only appreciate at 5% or roughly double in next 15 years

Doesn’t matter. Looking purely as a financial investment, If someone had bought these 2 houses in Fremont for the same price as the one in Cupertino in total the growth would have been better both in terms of $s and percentage(just based on the specific numbers posted).

FYI, these are just rudimentary anecdotal examples with different timelines, so not an apples to apples comparision.

For a fair comparison, one should use the same time frame. Say a house bought in 2004 and sold in 2021.

@silvermember Did you buy your home yet? At this time, 3.6M sounded like over-priced for this home, but looking back now it has become even higher… Feel bad asking you to wait for seasonal slow down… :frowning:

Just wait few more months. Prices will come back down to early 2021 levels, but with higher interest rates

No worries, no one has a crystal ball :wink:

And thank god, I did make my purchase (not the house in this post though).

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@Jil What is your outlook today looking at 2023?