We Are in Bear Market

10 weeks ago:

Is the Fed doing the right thing to continue rate hike?

Kudkow is a government officer and a politician now, nobody should trade stocks based on his comments. He used cocaine and alcohol 20 years ago.

“ In the late 1990s, after a publicized battle with cocaine and alcoholaddiction, Kudlow left Wall Street to become an economic media commentator – first with National Review , and later hosting several shows on CNBC.

Kudlow returned to politics in 2018, serving as Gary Cohn’s replacement at the National Economic Council.”

I’m glad you like to boast about being a nerd. There are high IQ content TV designed just for a nerd like you, so don’t rule out all TV as “shallow”.

Insider Stock Buying Surges to 8-Year High

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-26/insider-buying-surges-to-8-year-high-as-stock-bear-market-nears

The last time insider buying spiked in this fashion, in August 2011, the S&P 500 was in the middle of a 19 percent retreat before staging a 10 percent rally in each of the next two quarters.

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I hope, Market bottom today !
As usual, I was unable to buy and hold position ! Failed again !!
However, I sold 300 TSLAs at $357, $360 range, bought today 301 shares at $297. I am still a trader (not investor) !

Today, I bought TSLA, AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL.

You are simply great WQJ & hanera, I can not match you at all.

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Trading is more fun. Besides the government needs all that tax revenue

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Most of my stock money not taxed as it is in retirement accounts

Taxable money is in real estate, retirements accounts in stocks, that is why I am trading volatility.

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Makes sense. But you are basically gambling with your retirement money.

TSLA is a trader’s stock. Should trade and not buy n hold. You did right and well.

May be risking it. Since I do not have tax implications, when good stocks are coming down, I buy. When big dips were there, I sell.

I think it is mainly non-taxable account issue that I am trading ! I did the same for all stocks, including AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL and TSLA.

I also ran a statistics on S&P 500, stocks bottoms 80 days to 100 days from the peak, but takes longer time to recover.

The peak happened Oct 20th, it is supposed to go low by this time, expecting turnaround Jan 1st

Severe=>5/21/2015 H=>2130.820068 Days=>917 %=>57.45 Appreciated S Days=>1326 S%=>93.85
	Mild=>8/25/2015 L=>1867.609985 Days=>96 %=>12.35
	Mild=>11/3/2015 H=>2109.790039 Days=>70 %=>12.97 Appreciated
Severe=>2/11/2016 L=>1829.079956 Days=>100 %=>13.31 S Days=>266 S%=>14.16
	Mild=>6/27/2016 L=>2000.540039 Days=>137 %=>9.37 Appreciated
	Mild=>8/15/2016 H=>2190.149902 Days=>186 %=>19.74 Appreciated
	Mild=>11/4/2016 L=>2085.179932 Days=>81 %=>4.79
	Mild=>1/26/2018 H=>2872.870117 Days=>448 %=>37.78 Appreciated
	Mild=>2/8/2018 L=>2581 Days=>13 %=>10.16
Severe=>9/20/2018 H=>2930.75 Days=>224 %=>13.55 Appreciated S Days=>952 S%=>60.23

Don’t get too excited about today…

“With the end of the quarter, we could get a bounce in the next few days,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. But “the problem is [President Donald] Trump continues to create a lot of uncertainty. We can’t focus on the fact there are a lot of good bargains out there.”

Economy is strong. Fundamentals are strong. Wage growth is strong. All the troubles are artificial political ones. If Trump had a heart attack and dropped dead, Dow will melt up 10% the next day.

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Crazy Rich Asian gone wild:

Makes Zuckerbeg and WB look like the grinch

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All the troubles are the fed increasing interest rates. Every economic data point is positive despite all the crying over Trump ruining the economy.

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Although I’ve given up on (stock) market timing, this feels like a bear market rally…people have not capitulated yet.

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If the economy is strong, raising interest rates slightly will not catastrophically destabilize it.

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.

That’s the fundamental contradiction I pointed out earlier.

Either our growth has been elevated to 3% real rate, or it’s so weak that a fed fund rate slightly above inflation is going to destroy it.

Both can’t be true at the same time. Pick one.

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Gauging from sentiments of bloggers here? Volume of last few trading days is very high. Today is high volume reversal. Could be a kangaroo jump. Wait for 2mrw follow on day :pray:

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No, more from experience with 2008/2009. Someone made the comment/observation that the biggest up days take place in the middle of a bear market as stocks transiently rally from oversold conditions, only to subsequently work their way lower. Record +1000 point single day gain for the Dow…seems like classic coiled spring bear market behavior.

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