We Are in Bear Market

What do you think???

Is your answer going to be some variant of “everyday is good day to buy RE”?

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Our economy doesn’t grow without growing debt. More debt means higher sensitivity to interest rate increases. People are either forced to spend less since interest becomes a bigger expense.

Buy at any day during that period is definitely way better than today’s prices.

Would like to see this visually. I suspect that some periods of growth have been more fueled by debt than others, and that real (organic) growth is less sensitive to rate hikes.

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Buy at any days before I am born is even better.

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Too bad you couldn’t inherit from your dad.

The whole hoopla about yield curve inversion is not that short term rates are too high. It’s that long term rates are too darn low. Just look at mortgage rate. People can still take out mortgages at around 4% even when economy is growing at 3% real. In essence you can borrow millions at 2% interests rate for 30 years.

Fed is hiking precisely because economy is strong and likely to remain strong in medium terms. The whole thing about fed is killing economy is pretty much nonsense IMO.

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Even today, prices went down morning as selling pressures are high to mix the loss making to reduce gains. They simply rotate the stocks so that tax will be zero or more loss (max 3k) and keep the positive gains for next year without selling.

This is also done by big funds (Vanguard is famous for tax loss harvesting algorithms) , mutual funds, hedge funds.

People can easily make quick money buying Dec 31st and selling Jan in bulk margin too !

I have seen year after year, last week was heavy down. When the time hits new year, no one can buy stocks as it will jump immediately.

As long as rate spread (3 months to 10 year) is maintained well above 0.50%, recessions will not come. When spread is inverted and held for 6 months, we will see the recessions. Banking sector “Maturity Transformation” failure will happen when spread inversion occurs. Almost all banks lending are based on Maturity Transformation.

Exactly right !

It was late hike resulted big mess in 2008-2011. FED is rushing now before something big happens.

Now also we have seen “Bitcoin Mania”, “Cannabis Mania”, people used to double the amount. Both were speculative run, with too many options/derivatives, being removed by this rate hikes.

TLRY, 70% owned by Peter Thiel, had revenue 10 Millions, stock valued 12 Billion by Cannabis Mania !

All these craziness go away when FED rate hikes. Only real value companies like AAPL, AMZN remains in life.

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Is why is super to buy index funds from them :slight_smile: VOO, VFINX, VFIAX. They do all the dirty job for you. Just sit back and get your 11% annualized return… why work so hard for 10%?

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People know is speculating, they need an instrument to bet.

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It was my mistake: I was fool enough to loose my 20% gain holding the portfolio even though my algorithm gave me sell on Sep 20th. It is a lesson learned hard way. Yesterday jump (unexpected) hiked my profit from 10.06% to 15.75% YTD !

Notice how GDP growth was slow and steady until the 70’s when it went parabolic? That’s when we went off the gold standard. We created more money by borrowing it.

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Notice how GDP and debt are almost the same graph.

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I did gain though, with in 10 days buy and sell (as I knew speculative run), very quick bet. Buy price appx $58, sell price was $215 (it went up to $295 same day when I sold).

1987 was scary for stocks but good for RE

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Those charts are misleading – both GDP and debt should be plotted on a log scale or expressed as annual % change. US GDP growth has been flat or decreasing since the end of the great depression.

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How does Jil hold a W2 while trading stocks like a madman?

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My mistake is I got distracted and didn’t look at my algorithm. Not diligent enough.

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You’re only going back to when the debt explosion started with WW2. It’s also ignoring inflation.

If you are particular about TLRY, I can tell the story. I learnt STZ invested 3.5B USD on CGC which triggered to look at alternate cannabis, TLRY came in search.

First day, when I noticed it was $26, tried to analyze it, next day It jumped to $36, Shocked (understood speculative run like bitcoin mania) to see next day $44, then realized spike line, put good amount at $58, jumped $110 few days, sold appx 60% to take my own money (safe bet), left the balance to grow on it speed. One day, by chance I saw that crossing $200 during lunch time just sold market that was $215, but end of the day it hit $295.

Thereafter I never looked at the stock for many days.

Then, I learnt Peter Thiel owns 70% of TLRY !

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