What am I missing here about the market's reaction to the Novel Corona (Wuhan) Virus?

Newly confirmed cases rose by 3,143, a second consecutive daily drop

Ready for takeoff? :rocket:

Or a few more days for confirmed trend? :thinking:

From Taiwan or HK don’t bother.

Well… Qn is if the threat is so small why did USA and other countries stop flights? Why did China build 1 hospital and building another in 15 days ? Why have they shutdown cities with 50 million plus combined populations?

It’s possible those numbers in the newspaper are incorrect, but the actions by the Chinese govt and other countries show the threat might be more than they are revealing.

No intelligent Chinese blindly believe the CPC versions, whether they live in china or abroad.

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There are definitely huge risk and threat. I believe those actions do decrease the worst case scenario substantially.
I guess most people in market have an investment horizon longer than a year or so. If the virus would eventually subsided in summer (like most of the previous epidemics did), the market would have gone up anyway by then. If not, the world would have been in great trouble anyway and you may have your money in bank, but with the virus, those money would not able to help you much, so why not losing them as well :rofl:

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Stocks are all about fear and greed(bear/bull). The current market is excessively greedy. Fear of just about anything could turn it around quick. The news media is the biggest fear monger around. CNBC had a big long coronavirus story today. The worst modern pandemic was the Spanish flue. Killed 20million . SARS which killed 500 caused a lot more fear. The modern media creates a lot of fear and chaos. Probably why the Chinese police tried to stop the first rumors.

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Still holding on to 100 CVX, thinking of disposing them.

Keep the coronavirus in perspective. The Flu kills a lot more people

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-02-07/theres-a-virus-spreading-in-us-thats-killed-10-000-the-flu

Well documented. Not many people read. Also, so long there is no vaccine, people is scare.

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Comparing coronavirus with the flu is a fallacy. Flu has a death rate of 0.05% while Coronavirus has a death rate of >2%.

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I do think there’s something more going on then is being generally shared. Here’s my data points (all circumstantial):

  • The Chinese Governments reaction to the virus once they realized it was real (they literally put their economy on ice)

  • Regional Governments reactions (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, etc). They locked up, threw in emergency measures, and to ensure people get care (in many cases put in liquidity measures, free healthcare and compensation for lost time off). I don’t remember Singapore (for example) being even a fraction of that generous even at the height of SARS (of course, there is an election expected in Singapore, but still…)

  • The mysterious and rapid spread within cruiseships (the one off Japan, and now the one off NY). btw gives you a nice controlled environment to study what’s going on

  • (unconfirmed) Wifey is helping some people purchase a ton of basic medical supplies to ship to China to donate (we are talking millions of dollars). She gave me an errand today as they have hit a roadblock (I am trying to see if i can find some other international sources for her). She is hearing from the folks she’s working with that the US Government is blocking sales of medical supplies in bulk if it’s going to China. This caught me by surprise as I have never seen something like this happen.

so take it for what it’s worth

edit (added 1 more). You now need a facemask to be out in the public in Beijing. That is crazy serious.

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If it is indeed true that Wuhan’s infected number is actually more than 50K, as seems likely, overall death rate would be much lower than 2%. Right now Wuhan is singlehandedly pulling up the death rate, running at >4%. Cases outside of Wuhan has a death rate of 0.2% from the NYT article I saw, if I remember correctly.

Corona seems to be much more infectious while at the same time much less lethal than SARS.

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The death rate is being reported against cases that had already been diagnosed with Corona Virus iirc. It’s hard to be able to quantify it (inside China) as not everyone is being tested (shortage of test kits), and I don’t believe people are going back to tests on people who have died (if they have not already been tested).

so it is hard to determine real death rate. Also, it’s likely that death rate in China will be higher then outside China. It seems the virus is more deadly with people with underlying (especially respiratory issues) then those who are in regular health. Due to pollution, a fair number of people in China are carrying around damage to their lungs.

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Profiteering. Can’t even buy surgical masks in Austin MSA + suburbs. All online stores including AMZN have no stocks. Can get $2 per mask (many fakes) from other online third parties. Normal price less than 10 cent.

T-virus :scream:

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The care patients get at Wuhan is laughably lacking. People suspected of being infected are “locked up” in a “hospital” that’s more like a barrack. The risk of cross infection is very high. It’s like the Chinese government is actively cooking up new strains of the virus.

So Wuhan death rate will likely be higher than outside, especially outside of China. Plus there are likely to be far more people being infected there. China simply doesn’t have the capacity to run tests on millions of people.

Outside of China, especially in the first world, death rate is extremely low.

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The urgent, seemingly improvised steps come amid a worsening humanitarian crisis in Wuhan, one exacerbated by tactics that have left this city of 11 million with a death rate from the coronavirus of 4.1 percent as of Thursday — staggeringly higher than the rest of the country’s rate of 0.17 percent.

With the sick being herded into makeshift quarantine camps, with minimal medical care, a growing sense of abandonment and fear has taken hold in Wuhan, fueling the sense that the city and surrounding province of Hubei are being sacrificed for the greater good of China.

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Yah we are starting to see the worst of human nature raising it’s head. btw came back to the area last night. At SFO there were tons of older chinese people in wheelchairs waiting for their aids to be moved through immigration. I saw approximately 40 wheelchairs with occupants. I guess older people are trying to get out of East Asia into the US?

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• Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) extends its retail store closures from February 10 to between February 13 and 15 due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak.

• Last week, Apple said it would close all 42 of its stores in the region until after the extended Lunar New Year holiday ended.

• The stores reopening on the earlier dates will likely have limited hours. The time frame is still fluid due to uncertainty around the virus.

I bet Apple stores will remain closed for the whole month of February. Risk is too high.

I agree the two can’t be compared, but I don’t think we have actual stats of either. Doesn’t seem like anyone knows exactly how many people really have the coronavirus, so if stats are only based on cases that are serious enough to end up in a hospital, the actual death rate will be lower. This is what I’m hoping long-term that the actual rate is more like .5% or even .1%. Also hoping that it’s mostly people who are older or immune-compromised. Even with the flu, the CDC stats are probably not based on randomized testing of a population with followup to see who died. We only know year to year mortality rate and which populations are more susceptible. And the numbers don’t worry me quite yet. As I get older, everything will…

That said, thank you for reminding me that I should stock up on Vitamin C and food.

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• Hon Hai/Foxconn (OTCPK:HNHAF,OTCPK:HNHPD) told employees in Shenzhen not to return to work on February 10, the end of the extended Lunar New Year holiday.

• A memo obtained by Bloomberg tells employees to “wait for further notice” on a return date.

• Foxconn mainly assembles Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhones in Zhengzhou, but some assembly occurs in Shenzhen, and it serves as the company’s Chinese headquarters.

• Yesterday, Nikkei Asian Review sources said the coronavirus outbreak was delaying Apple’s plan to ramp up AirPods production to meet demand.