Exactly in next downturn, most large cap companies (amazon, msft, Boeing, and Starbucks) won’t file bankruptcy. They are run by experienced teams who will quickly correct with massive layoffs of lower productivity employees.
Unicorn startups that haven’t been fiscally responsible will bite the dust and be replaced by competitors in better financial shape (Uber?). Many small companies and startups will either go bankrupt, shut down or get sold to the big boys for cheap.
I’d vote with Jill, 2018 or 2019 for next downturn.
Sounds like the author is advocating higher property taxes and lower income taxes…Like in Texas…interesting concept. …Wold be very disruptive to real estate investors…
Fordvary predicted 2008 real estate recession correctly. The next housing disaster will be in 2026z
We should plan to sell all the houses in 2022. Maybe 1031 exchange to a stable state such as Utah, Texas.
The author’s tax proposals can be ignored since he has no influence over public policy. The more likely policy is to repeal property tax and heavily tax the top 10% income earners and make the income tax zero for bottoms 90%
No, why would I listen to any one person’s suggestion? I’m sure there are 10 other theories out there with different conclusions. What makes this person so special? 20 other people also predicted 2008 correctly.
Market slowed in 2005 before the full blown price plunge in 2008. I think I will need to sell when it’s still not too hard to sell. Also different locations have a couple of years of difference, you can fine tune your timing.
The big question is what to do after you sell. If 1031 exchange, where to buy to park your money safety during the storm?
There’s no place to hide. Best place to hide is to turn all your money into gold and hide them under the mattress, because even banks can become insolvent and government can go bankrupt so you can forget about FDIC insurance…
At least a million people predicted the 2008 recession, depending on what constitutes a valid prediction. I predicted the recession when Bear Stearns in crisis in 2007.
Sound like you are still viewing gold as money. Capital preservation in this context needs not mean wealth in terms of green back is preserved. What you want is protecting your purchasing power. For example as an RE investor you want to hold as many property as possible. If the crisis causes your net worth to decline 10 folds from $10 mil to $1 mil, and you are still owning 10 Bay Area property, you are ok. If you own more than 10, you are gaining even though in terms of greenbacks is lowered. If you are able to keep the same nominal, I will die die follow you and rever you.
The US real estate market is not yet in bubble land. Some 15 percent of houses still have negative equity. But the policy of US governments has been relentlessly to promote home ownership, and most likely the US and state governments will provide more guarantees, low rates, and other subsidies to lower-income first-time buyers.
The US government is also pushing to make higher-income suburban communities “diversify” by bringing in and subsidizing lower-income and minority persons.
If land rent were used for public revenue instead of taxes on labor and goods, wages would be higher, real estate prices lower, the gains from growth would benefit all the public, and the real estate cycle would be replaced by sustainable growth.
Another think tank thinks he has an ideal tax system by looking at a single (RE in this case) perspective.
Always seem to be in constant danger of running out of cash. Other than that, all other aspects are ok.
My stock portfolio is settled, only focusing on how to diversify into RE.
You made it sound as if hanera did something wrong. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. I think you should learn something from him rather than telling him what to do.
hanera is the only person who made more money from non-employer stocks than RE here. It’s really rare to meet a person who can make more money from non-employer stocks. Apparently he is good at stock investment. I was just saying that a concentrated portfolio needs attention, study and periodic reevaluation. I believe Buffet team does this as well. It’s not a criticism about concentrated portfolio. Concentration is the only way to have super returns. Index is mediocre and average, most investors are worse than mediocre
If hanera also made bulk of money from employer stocks, I would need to look again for a person who made more money from non-employer stocks than RE. If anyone here did this, please correct me.
I’ve less confidence on stock market. Many stock investors make claims of big returns when they are even lagging index, or even when losing money.
