Where are we headed?

I have been pretty lucky in the prediction business…I predicted the historic rise in BA real estate in 2012. I predicted Trump’s win(although reluctantly and with caveats)…I have also predicted in 2012 a down turn in 2017. …Hope it doesn’t happen either…But what if it does? What do you all think? Defensive strategy? Alternatives?

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Head to Japan with me? Watch the fireworks from afar :joy:

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The fireworks will be everywhere.
Remember: if US sneezes - world catches cold

Trump will destroy paper US dollar currency and replace with virtual currency. causing a reset .
His plan to restore america begins after this.

just a prediction.

If so you should be shorting the dollar on the FOREX…so far you would be losing money…Gold maybe???

This is from an analyst in hong kong predicted over half year ago. Before trump was elected. His analysis is pretty good.

I thought the dollar would tank and the Dow would drop 1000 points.hasn’t happened. …in fact just the opposite. .A lot of investors are looking forward to a Republican pro business agenda…


Buy into a safe haven. The recent dip with quick rebound was an anomaly.
Got my funds moved to a place I can use them whatever the environment becomes .

Even if we go into recession the dollar should hold up…

Deutsche Bank said back in June we have a 60% chance of recession, most economists say 35%…Jim Rogers, a former Soros partner and dilletante, says 100%…But even he says the dollar will stay strong…

There is tons more volatility in the system now. All bets are off. Had Hillary won I am quite certain economy will do well. Now I am not sure anymore.

Geopolitical risks is off the charts now. Trump’s buddy Putin now has free hands to swallow Ukraine whole. Maybe he can take over the Baltic states too and I am sure trump will just let him. We have not seen a US Russia alliance since WW2.


Obama would have let Russia take Ukraine, also…In fact the Europeans have no stomach to stand up to the Russians. …Trumps point is why are we trying to keep holding up NATO when noboby in Europe cares?..The Russians are bankrupt. …A war is not in their interests. …But Putin is saber rattling for domestic consumption…A Russian American alliance could be a good thing…We have a lot in common and and have a common enemy…Islamic fascism…something the Soviets kept in check…

One of the things I like about Trump is he is questioning 70 years of American foreign policy. .A policy that has dragged us into several unpopular and pointless wars…Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afganistan… Cost us blood, treasure and prestige. …And we have received no benefit. .All the negatives of an empire and none of the advantages. .

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I hold equal parts gold and dollars. So far gold is getting crushed

If Trump gets his infrastructure program, wages and inflation go up…Good for landlords and gold…
He promised $1 trillion over 10 years…Ryan and McConnell are not on board and over $3.6 Trillion is needed.

Trump is a classic populist. Just spend money to be popular. Funny how people think he will get deficit down. The man has no principles and no discipline. I am on board with infrastructure spending. Spend baby spend.

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$1T sounds like a lot, but it’s over 10 years. $100B/yr is nothing to an economy our size.

Tyler Cowen on Trump’s infrastructure plan.

I like to read Cowen. He’s one of the few level headed guys who is not ideological. In times of crisis, like 2009, there is a strong case to spend money quickly. The patient is dying, we need to do something fast. But when are approaching full employment, as we are in 2016, we need to look at cost benefits carefully and spend the money wisely.

We do have a lot of crumbling infrastructure in need of fixing. Keep a watchful eye on where Trump spends the money.

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The infrastructure money will have to be spent sooner or later…Better to spend it sooner than later…Kind of like health care…have a good system in place with prevention in mind instead a costly system relying on emergency care…But as far as Trump is concerned. .Obama got little done even with control of the House and Senate in his first two years…Trump will have similar problems…The American ship of state is hard to turn around. .pretty much runs on auto pilot…


Yes, I am amazed with such prediction like the way Trump amazed with his win ! Your prediction Sense is really stronger, Three Kudos to you !!

Having said this,anything possible with Trump in government for “down turn in 2017” ! It depends on his decision and leadership.

There are few caveats for this “2017 Prediction”.

  1. If there is FED rate hike, even once, your prediction comes true. Then, we are going to have long bearish, if further rate hikes are there. If there is no rate hike until Dec 2017, we are bullish.

  2. Trump will reduce, as per his promise, tax rates for individual+corporate. If it happens, your prediction may be wrong.

  3. Trump has to cut Manufacturing shift towards Mexico+China. I do not know how. If he does, I do not see down turn in 2017.

  4. If war is there, which Trump is against, we get into down turn.

If for some reason, we go to downturn, other than WAR or FED rate hike, recovery will be faster.

Do not sell good stocks (like hanera aapl bought in 2000) and good homes (i.e…like Cupertino homes). You may not gain much by doing this.

Sell loss making or bad stocks and properties (worst locations) now. You (elt1) do this nicely now selling Stockton and Sacramento.

Have cash and buy properties+Stocks during downturn.