Where are we headed?

Bulk in 1997 :slight_smile:, primary and rental are in Cupertino :grin:.

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Now, I would like to vote against elt1 on recession (other than two issues FED rate hike or WAR) !

Having said this, the current opportunities are better to buy following 5 stocks even though they are jumped 10%-30% high recently.

  1. UBNT
  2. LMT
  3. NOC
  4. GD
  5. NVDA

First four are right now buy stocks and hold for 6 to 12 months. Trump will be pumping in money in to LMT,NOC and GD.

Like LMT and NVDA but don’t want to invest in stocks anymore… have been over-weighting for decades. Now is to RE :). Because our initial position is different, we are moving in opposite direction but actually to the same mixed assets.

Brexit and US elections proved me how much poor I am with politics and prediction ! What I learnt is that I need to vote opposite of my political guesswork/analysis !

I have been in RE with 80%. My dark side was stocks, in fact left the stock boat long time during 2008-2013. By investing stocks, I gain more knowledge.

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Pretty sure we will get a rate hike at least once before December 2017.

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Very good writeup from the Economist about Trump’s economic impact

Yellen’s term is up in 2018. Most likely she can’t stay on, and Trump will likely replace her with someone more hawkish. Inflation will likely be higher because of tax cut and infrastructure spending. So rates will likely be a lot higher in a couple years.

If trade barriers go up it’s also inflationary, as goods become more expensive.

Short term sugar rush, long term cancer seems to be diagnosis right now. Sad!

Crystal ball again unclear on Trump. Part of me thinks he wants to do deficit spending, so keep rates low so he can get the cheapest rates on US debt. To him, it would seem like a free lunch – why raise rates when you can keep them low and borrow at low cost? Eventually inflation will hit, but that means the US wins since it has locked in low rates.

Rate hike affects low income people (living on credit card debts) heavily than high income (living on mortgage debts).

Trump period, inflation increases as he relax/reduces individual+corporate tax rates.

Unless Trump improves employment for Middle America (Detriot, Ohio…etc), he can not support rate hike.

I am confident that rate hike can not happen even by Jun 2017.

I was in Salinas and Hollister. To my amazement the homes are selling for mid $700s (modern homes like Rinconada across from Aapl spaceship) they were around high 200Ks like 3 years ago. Hollister homes are not affordable at all. Before one can get an older home for $185Ks.

I do not see how they can retain that many jobs in aggie towns unless Trump will not allow lettuce & flowers to be imported from Central America.

MaryJane will be home grown soon and they need not to import illegally from the south.

Policing others is less important than worry about your own problems like poverty at home.

What’s a safe haven? That’s the subject of this thread.

So the safe haven has not been gold or bonds…Stocks have done well…Real estate is still doing well. Trump will bring inflation according to most pundits…Probably a good thing after 8 years of near deflation. …Never have been a fan of gold and bonds…so far so good…Just pray for no black swan events…

Personally I am keeping my powder dry…But have found some first trust deeds at 10%, Cash at Ally or Barclays @ 1%…been bidding super low on flips with no success. .

Some parts of San jose like west San Jose, Rosegarden, Almaden, Some parts of Evergreen.
Some parts of Milpitas, Santa Clara,Sunnyvale, Mountain View…entire stretch until SFO. I have seen San Mateo parts like Belmont, San Mateo challenging nowadays.

In simple terms, wherever cash offers or multiple offers (10 real offers or above was prevalent) between 600k and 1.5 M level homes are there (between 2008 and now), you can say safe haven. More the buyers are there, stronger the areas. More the cash buyers, less reduction/drop in price.

Hey, @Elt1, hope you don’t mind…I threw this article under this thread

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesrealestatecouncil/2017/07/24/three-ways-to-thrive-in-a-trump-real-estate-market/#102a8a182258

LOL…all those predictions in the dumpster. All you see is infighting in the white house. That bad mouth kid needs to go and put an adult in charge. Only that way you can get anything done.

Yellen was called names by Twhitler. Now? He likes her. Why? Because whatever she did, worked. And Twhitler wants credit for anything from the past. He ain’t doing anything at all but golfing.

I heard on the radio that we experienced some inflation during the last 2 months. Another rate increase in the making.

Put somebody there knowing what the hell it needs to be done.

Median home prices - higher
S&P 500, DOW, and NASDAQ - higher
Labor force participation - higher
Wages - higher
Unemployment - lower

Yeah, I don’t think anyone predicted all of those right.

Thanks to Obama’s policies.
Twhitler’s start on October first.

Nice trying.