WSJ-Aug 9th, 2018, Home Sales Hit West



Looks like RE is coming down, yet to see how much next year.


It says: “The number of people who think it’s a good time to buy fell by 4%, where as the number of people who think it’s a good time to sell fell by 6%”. Exactly why prices didn’t fall much in Cupertino in 2009. When the price is not good sellers don’t sell. Totally opposite of stock market. Unless they are desperate of course.


This is a good time to buy.


Nobody will sell. So even if there are no buyers, prices won’t drop much for five years. Unless there is a recession. I just got a good deal because of a divorce. Sellers will only sell in a down market if they suffer from the three Ds


How good of a deal? 20% less than market value?


About that. Needs new roofs and some minor repairs. But I think I can increase the value by 30%


nice! should find me one of these. I bid on a house whose owners were going through divorce. The highest bid was asian money, and the owners asked if we were willing to match. It was 50k more than our bid, i said no. I am glad that i did not accept, but they were trying to get the most they could in that situation - can’t blame them.


It helps that is supposed to be a buyers market in Placerville. No multiple bids. Lots of price reductions. Prices have run up 50% since 2012 and got a bit ahead of themselves. Lots of delusional sellers. Have been making low ball all cash offers.


I measured the value by several metrics. Comps, rental return, replacement value and location.
It is a 5cap or more as a rental. It is 35% below replacement value and about 20% below comps.


You are bidding in a wealthy area where competition is there, cash buyers are there to compete. It is tough to see prices coming down in such areas.


It was crazy at that time, a comp house sold for 3.8M 2 months later. I think it was in menlo park, and menlo park has been very cold for quite a while now.


So you lost out on a $3M+ house over $50k?


counting pennies, yes.


The richest people I know count pennies. A good habit


mine was out of frustration - the seller wanted security of a us buyer, but the price of a chinese one. i said no, but it was fine for him to do that because they were going through divorce and for them every penny mattered (looks like).

In the end, i am better off now :slight_smile:


As in now you’d have to pay 10%+ more and have a higher interest rate?


:joy: I would have trumped with $100k more.
Really rich don’t bother to ask about the price.

As in he doesn’t need to sell GOOG or AMZN shares which have went up a lot more.


are you always gloomy :slight_smile:


By that logic nobody should buy a house.