WSJ-Aug 9th, 2018, Home Sales Hit West


#1


#2

Looks like RE is coming down, yet to see how much next year.


#3

It says: “The number of people who think it’s a good time to buy fell by 4%, where as the number of people who think it’s a good time to sell fell by 6%”. Exactly why prices didn’t fall much in Cupertino in 2009. When the price is not good sellers don’t sell. Totally opposite of stock market. Unless they are desperate of course.


#4

This is a good time to buy.


#5

Nobody will sell. So even if there are no buyers, prices won’t drop much for five years. Unless there is a recession. I just got a good deal because of a divorce. Sellers will only sell in a down market if they suffer from the three Ds


#6

How good of a deal? 20% less than market value?


#7

About that. Needs new roofs and some minor repairs. But I think I can increase the value by 30%


#8

nice! should find me one of these. I bid on a house whose owners were going through divorce. The highest bid was asian money, and the owners asked if we were willing to match. It was 50k more than our bid, i said no. I am glad that i did not accept, but they were trying to get the most they could in that situation - can’t blame them.


#9

It helps that is supposed to be a buyers market in Placerville. No multiple bids. Lots of price reductions. Prices have run up 50% since 2012 and got a bit ahead of themselves. Lots of delusional sellers. Have been making low ball all cash offers.

https://www.zillow.com/placerville-ca/home-values/


#10

I measured the value by several metrics. Comps, rental return, replacement value and location.
It is a 5cap or more as a rental. It is 35% below replacement value and about 20% below comps.


#11

You are bidding in a wealthy area where competition is there, cash buyers are there to compete. It is tough to see prices coming down in such areas.


#12

It was crazy at that time, a comp house sold for 3.8M 2 months later. I think it was in menlo park, and menlo park has been very cold for quite a while now.


#13

So you lost out on a $3M+ house over $50k?


#14

counting pennies, yes.


#15

The richest people I know count pennies. A good habit


#16

mine was out of frustration - the seller wanted security of a us buyer, but the price of a chinese one. i said no, but it was fine for him to do that because they were going through divorce and for them every penny mattered (looks like).

In the end, i am better off now :slight_smile:


#17

As in now you’d have to pay 10%+ more and have a higher interest rate?


#18

:joy: I would have trumped with $100k more.
Really rich don’t bother to ask about the price.

As in he doesn’t need to sell GOOG or AMZN shares which have went up a lot more.


#19

are you always gloomy :slight_smile:


#20

By that logic nobody should buy a house.