Bay Area Chugging Along


#41

Denver beats the hell out of Pittsburgh


#42

Amazon already has 20% of commercial space in Seattle. That’s far more than any company in any city. Amazon wants to double it’s HQ staff. Seattle isn’t going to build that much more commercial space.


#43

Boulder proper is “expensive”, but there are lots of cheap options if you’re willing to commute a bit.

Good schools, new home, $115/ft^2 and 20 mins from the google office:


#44

That’s cool. People who want to escape Bay Area now has another option.

Contrast this 1.5k Boulder campus with the planned San Jose Google Banana, the banana will have space for 20k employees, assuming it gets built as planned, which is not guaranteed.


#45

#46

Clarification from Redfin CEO

I should have been clearer on this point: more people will move to Seattle, in part driven by tax reform. Many will come from California.


#47

Some say that could turn out to be a high-water mark until buyers and sellers sort out the impact of the federal tax overhaul, which eliminates some tax benefits of homeownership. Others say the bill won’t put enough downward pressure on the seemingly insatiable demand for Bay Area homes to cause prices to fall.

“I think it’s going to be wait and see in January and February,” said Michael Barnacle, managing broker of the Zephyr Real Estate office in Pacific Heights. “We have had some evidence in recent weeks of people deciding they weren’t going to sell as a consequence of the new taxes.” They might be worried that they will have to pay higher property taxes on a new home, yet be able to deduct less of them, if any.

Buyers, especially first-timers, “are probably going to hold off until they can entirely figure out the whole rent-versus-own situation as a consequence of the tax changes,” Barnacle said.

Ultimately, most people he talks to expect “lower but steady appreciation,” but in the short term, prices may plateau “until people figure this out,” he said.


#48

Of course, it will stay there and go up.

When i buy a house, you can be sure the top is hit, though.


#49

So why do you believe a flattening is not possible? I mean, we have the tax law change that will impact some. Dang, that 2nd 2017 property tax payment my buddy hand delivered to the City Hall yesterday is already cashed. We also have the situation in SV where some folks are supposedly leaving for cheaper climes. I am also in the market somewhat like you but I am not wanting to dole out 1.5m for a home that is not in SF or in SV. Bottom line: it just doesn’t seem worth it.


#50

I am not sure if the exodus is going to happen. Sure i have a couple of friends that left for seatle or orange county, but google and the likes are building massive campuses nearby which will further increase the steam, no?


#51

I want to drink the Kool-Aid with you…emphasize the “want”


#52

Not sure i got what you mean :confused:


#53

Oh, drinking the Kool-Aid is a reference to the unfortunate Jim Jones’ mass suicide by his followers years ago by literally drinking the Kool-Aid, which was of course tainted. By drinking the Kool-Aid, it means I want to believe with you that the BA market is unstoppable…


#54

Ah I got the kool aid part, but wasn’t sure if you really wanted to “drink” it, since you are also in the market.
I actually want it to crash, mostly because primary residence is a very unproductive asset in the grand scheme of things.


#55

While the saying is more negative, I still use it to mean “believe” generically so it can be positive in my book. My mom taught me that before anything else,a roof over your head was paramount. At any cost. When you own your own roof, to a certain extent you own part of your destiny. That’s what a lot of Chinese folks have believed and have gone with over the years…


#56

Other than Seattle, there is no other good place for tech workers. Small market is a big risk for workers since it’s rare for people to work the same job for many years. Job change is hard in small market.

But non tech people can easily move to Texas or Carolinas, why are they not moving there? Maybe not that many non tech jobs there for SV people


#57

Expensive roof for destiny, which is for most people working 9-5 for a corporate job.


#58

Well, does it make sense to pay the ridiculous rent amounts seen these days? I mean, to pay 3-4K in monthly rent is not exactly cheap either. What can I say? We live in an expensive area…


#59

I pay <1800 in mtv, so i am somewhat ok from that regard, but i want a house, nice and new, and close to work so i can make modifications, get a dog, have a child and play with him/her in the yard :slight_smile:

My backup plan is to buy, rent that one, and keep my current apartment for another year or so just for fun, since rent control is awesome :slight_smile:


#60

Does Mountain View have rent control? Didn’t know that (should verify before buying a rental there).

But yeah, I used to live in mtv few years back and it looks many parts of mtv still haven’t been gentrified yet (i.e. the rent still seems pretty low). Lots of 1bdroom apartments for < $2200, within 10 mins to Google campus. Was there decline in rent recently? I remember paying the same amount (or more) 5 years ago.