Predictions for Sunnyvale, Cupertino

Exactly same here, outside market is really, really crazy.

Belmont ? Tough to get it, it is so crazy as 95129/94087. Fremont is not easy, but affordable level.

Thought the entire Bay Area is crazy. Recall either an article or some one here said that un like previous rally, the prices of houses in Bay Area appreciate at the same rate in % term. Those who can’t afford in Fortress, move to periphery of Fortress pushing those who want to buy there to exurbs :slight_smile: Similar effect as previous RE bull market, the difference is the speed of spreading is so fast that there is no time lag.

Jane has not been looking for rental until recently. That could be Jane is either a Johnny come late holding the bag or there is still some steam left in the RE bull market. In addition, RSU rich techies may be scared out of the unstable stock market into buying RE. One last gasp for RE bull?

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Not too late @Jane, I just bought one in WSJ. Negative cash flow for sure, but you can always turn it into a flip if you can’t deal with it anymore. That’s want I plan to do.

This is the case for me.
I have thought RE is slower and more stable investment than stock so far although you need big chunk of money to begin with. However, today’s market doesn’t seem stable at all.
I am surprised to see how rich people are in this area. 3 million house means $40,000 propety tax per year. How can so many people buy such expensive houses without hesitation?
My sense is that price went up 30-50% in most of south bay during the past 6 months.

SWEs are very rich, richer than those during dotcom. You may have miss this thread, Software Engineer salaries

Rich as in their purchase power is high… ratio of their salary over price of house is comparatively higher than those during dotcom… is why prices of houses can be chased so high.

Have I retired too early?

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Apparently yes.

It seems so :wink:

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I am wondering if it still makes sense to hold on to SBay investment properties? Or does it make more sense to sell SBay rentals and buy Fremont rentals via 1031 exchange?

No, South Bay more valuable than Fremont.

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But Fremont has better cash flow. Are you essentially betting that SBay will continue to have higher rate of appreciation than Fremont?

Refer to the price of my rental SFH as given by zillow. Price began to appreciate from 2012 and then in 2017, accelerated after the 2016 pause. The speed of climb starting from 2017 is faster than from 2012.

10%20PM

Then why not Antioch which has the best cash flow? When you buy a trophy property you can’t think about cash flow too much. All South Bay properties except ESJ are trophy property now.

There is an alternative to 1031. Re-finance some money out of the SV house to purchase in higher cash flow neighborhoods such as East Bay or Austin :grinning: I have thought about this and myo has opened a thread on this possibility for discussion.

Fremont is still commutable to major tech employers while I consider Antioch an exurb and hence more prone to downward pricing pressure in a recession. Fremont I believe will perform better in next recession compared to the previous recession.

What’s your definition of a trophy property?
Also, would you consider Sunnyvale and Santa Clara north of El Camino Real trophy properties?

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I think anything over $1M qualifies. Which means a lot of fremont homes also qualify. But why not buy in South Bay if your budget is 1M? Closer commute than fremont for sure.

I have thought about it but would hate to lose the low fixed rate I have on SBay rental by refinancing now.

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I believe the average commute time from Fremont to major tech companies is approaching SBay good school areas if you consider all major tech players between San Mateo and San Jose. And SF commute is actually easier from Fremont than SBay.

Actually isn’t fremont where Tesla is? If Tesla takes off big time then maybe it does make sense to buy Fremont.