Software Engineer salaries in 2018, tech levels, and lifestyle
With so many SWEs earning between $200k-$500k, why would RE prices drop?
Fresh grad earns $150k-$200k 
Stay in a van or RV
After 5 years, $300k-$500k 
Buy a SFH worth $2M 
Pay cash!
âAfter 5 years, $300k-$500k 
Buy a SFH worth $2M 
Pay cash!â
nope canât do.
Think as if you bought a home now for 2M, will you sell that less than 2M in future? You wonât, similarly all sellers wonât.
This is what happening in Tokyo or Hong Kong or Singapore as prices go up.
Then, new buyer will go for TH or Condos or like in SFO they go for TIC or Rooms.
Price wonât drop. Up, up, up! 
thatâs what happened to bitcoin.
Did you not drink the RE kool aid yet? SMH.
Whatever happened to bitcoin (IMO, it is not complete yet !), we had it in Real estate in 2008. This will not recur for another 10 or 20 years as the current lending rules are tougher than past (pre-2008).
I dont buy that argument. What tighter rules? Dti? Private lenders are still a thing?
What happened in 2006-2008, why US lost 9 Trillions, why 2008-2011 was buyers marketâŠetc ==> This is too big to answer.
Google it , âSub-Prime downturnâ or see âbig-shorts movieâ, you will know.
Whether you buy that argument or ignore it, it does not change the market.
Real estate is not so volatile like stocks. People were challenging similar questions in year 2011-2014 too. Every year we pass, we understand last year was too good buy !
I honestly think that we are at least 50% past the bull cycle though. Things will not go up forever, and there will definitely be a correction coming to test everybodyâs endurance. However, I can see that there should still be several years of good times ahead of us before everything falls off the cliff.
Learnt a hard lesson after two 1100+ dips ! Even though It worked well, it gave me a good idea.
Today, I had conference how Trumpâs corp tax cut changes the situation in USA. I see many cash rich tech companies like AAPL, GOOGL are taking advantages of tax reduction and buyback the shares. NFLX, AMZN are also super example why they jump so far. I really missed NFLX long time.
After 5 years, earn 300k to 500k.
How much to earn after 10 years? After 20 years? And after 30 years?
How long will the software engineerâs career? At what age, will their income flatten and eventually out of job? Mortgage needs to be paid off before end of career.
Iâm worried about this peak earnings at the early age. Fashion modelâs pay also accelerate really fast, peaks young and the career ends before they become old.
I am not sure about this.
Recently, banks started to include RSU+bonus in income and people are maxing out their loan with ARM (nobody around me got 30-year fixed except me).
I heard that a family with base salary less than 200K got 1.4M mortgage. I guess mortgage default risk is building up in SV.
But RSU is a lot more?
I donât know their total compensation. But I doubt it would be over 300K when base salary is less than 200K (In my opinion, income should be over 300K and preferably over 400K for 1.4M mortgage) . Based on my experience, RSU/bonus are the first thing to go if company starts to go downhill. There was a reason why lenders didnât include RSU/bonus to income until recently.
If one gets ARM mortgage including RSU/bonus to their income, the risk is high even with hiccup in tech sector(especially stock price).
Not sure why lenders relaxed their rules only a few years after subprime mortgage crisis.
I know some companies cap base comp (ie Amazon - max base of 180 range regardless of level including execs, and rest is all RSUs in some cases 2-3x more than base).
Recently, I came to know WFC accounts RSU (with vesting schedules)+Bonus as income.
Not sure why lenders relaxed their rules only a few years after subprime mortgage crisis. ==> They disallowed RSUs, Bonus between 2008-2015 as they wanted to play safe. There is no Fannie Mae guidelines for RSU or bonus.
Now, they have competition to provide low rate, high risk loans considering RSUs & Bonus. It is risk of borrower and secondary market money providers, but banks are clever getting commission for their service providers.
Still they said 20% down payment. In case of downturn and default, the first 20% is at risk.
That is the main reason I was telling real estate downturn may come after 10 years or 20 years from now, but not immediately.
I said âThis will not recur for another 10 or 20 yearsâ
So in bad time Amazon can cut peopleâs total pay by half in a straight face. Love it. Need to buy more of their stocks. 
Never thought about it that way, I should buy more of their stock. I just wish it wasnât like 2x from even a year ago though 
1.4M mortgage has about 7k monthly payment. Including property tax, total monthly will be close to 9k per month. Their DTI will be around 50%. This might be the worst case LTV. Itâs definitely a stretch.
Their income will likely increase over the years. Inflation will make their home value increase at a steady pace. As long as the average DTI is reasonable, no systematic risk.