Trading wars impact


Trump is not trying beat China or another country, that is not his intention.

He is trying to get back jobs by adding tariff.

I am taking a sample AAPL.

Why do AAPL manufacture iphone from China?
Lack of technology, or lack of money or lack of people…etc?
With the advent of internet and globalization economy, AAPL is taking advantage of low cost and they get tax reduction benefit at 21%. BY adding tariff (actually Trump exempted phones) AAPL needs pay 25% additional money to US as duty. This nullifies each other (tax reduction and tariff addition) unless AAPL makes the iphone locally.

It will affect to the extend how much they are exporting. I do not have statistics to Analyze.I trust that USA would have analyzed the retaliation measures and the impact. We will see the results in the long run.

Since I owned Boeing, only two giants Airbus and Boeing ,I can confidently say that Boeing will recover as Airbus is already shattered.

Yes, China is independent country, they can grow at their own will. They are not depended on USA at all. Every country needs to address their self reliance, self defense on their own.


This is a fallacious argument. Without having a global supply chain the volume of sale won’t be that huge. The assumption is manufacturing in USA and manufacturing using a global supply chain, Apple can still sell the same number of units of Apple products, and hence require the same number of jobs. A big f… assumption. This same fallacious argument is being repeated for all other products.

Allow me to illustrate with fictitious figures (don’t have real numbers, too lazy to search web),
If no global supply chain, Apple may sell only $20B instead of $220+ B per year, hence, instead of employing 100,000 employees, Apple would employ 10,000 employees. Apple employs 80,000 employees in USA & created 2 million jobs in USA.

Trump didn’t impose tariff on iPhone, guess he is well aware of the fallacious argument :wink: or Jared manages to enlighten him.


This reminds me of all the complaining during tax reform. Most people only considered the line items that negatively impacted them. They didn’t consider the tax reform as a whole. The media wanted to make Trump look bad, so they only covered the areas that reduced deductions. They didn’t talk about improvements to child tax credit. They talked a lot about corporate rates and the top rate being lowered to anger people. They didn’t talk much about rates of other brackets being lowered. Most people fell for it and failed to realized what all the changes were. Now people are getting bigger paychecks thanks to new withholding tables. Companies are giving out bonuses and raises. The tax reform has gone from under 20% approval to over 50% and rising.


We will see whether this is fallacious argument or working well in 3 - 7 years. We may have economic issues between 2018 and 2019, but the country economy turns a swing up thereafter.


This is true ever since he started his campaign !


I support Trump on somethings…But tariffs are just for pandering to his rust belt base…He should just give them cash…The tariffs will bite him in the butt and put more out of work than jobs saved…


Presently, USA became world’s marketing/sales center while world became manufacturer/worker community.

Trump is changing world as marketing/sales center while USA becomes the designer/manufacturer/worker community.


Tariffs are taxes…Picking winners and loosers…government isn’t good at that…The loosers we know are industries that can’t compete…Retrain those workers and give them support…But don’t blow a whole in our competitive industries and agriculture to save the few loosers…


We can not avoid immediate impact of exports, across all industries, but tax cut saves most of them. When the industry survive now, they continue to survive as long as the impact is less than 20%.

Corp tax cut comes as handy saving tax from 39% to 21%. In one or two years, they will grow.


The tariffs aren’t even active yet. That gives everyone time to negotiate a deal. Now that there’s a deadline, both sides should be motivated to make a deal instead of kicking the can down the road for the status quo.


This is way more than a mere trade dispute. As my screenhsot of Navarro’s comments shows it’s more a Cold War. Navarro or Trump wants to suppress China’s rise. Even if it’s a misunderstanding Beijing will read it that way.

This is a terrible way to negotiate. It only works if you are holding all the cards. It shows the world Trump is a bully and if China makes consessions it will lose a lot of face. Emperor Xi just got his infinite term and you think his first act is to bow down to Bully Trump?

Beijing has been puttting a lot of pressure on North Korea recently, telling Kim to knock off his missile shooting. Expect those pressure to go the other way.


I think the most likely outcome is for trump to claim victory on things that China will do anyway and back down. China is still in the process of opening up, especially in services including finance. Xi will have important speech next week that’s widely expected to contain major new reform initiatives.


He said it’s frustrating that Trump is imposing tariffs to support less competitive sectors like steel and aluminum, while exposing more competitive sectors like agriculture and chemicals to China’s retaliation.

Econ 101 right there.


Don’t think is Trump’s idea. The bureaucrats and the military want that long ago. Other presidents don’t want to. Trump senses that many Americans want to suppress China too. USA has always worried about the awakening lion, they are so concerned that they have encircled China with many military bases.


It is not about China. It is about appealing to his toothless base. If he miscalculates his base will be hurt the most, that’s who China will target.


Who “negotiates” by pointing a gun to people’s heads? Yes you can do that if you hold all the cards and can’t lose. But then it’s not really a negotiation is it?

If that’s the way Trump negotiates for his business no wonder he’s bankrupt over and over.


There are some signs of anti-America sentiments in China. Some people are urging for boycott of American goods. Watch out Apple and GM. Tesla can kiss the Chinese market goodbye.


Assembled in China :slight_smile:
GM is assembled in US only right? Did GM has a factory in China? (too lazy to web search).

Journalist is talking cock right? No Android, no iPhone, then use what?


Apple and GM are American brand. Apple happily tells the world their stuff is “Designed in California”.

Most GM cars sold in China are made in China. I think China is their No1 market.


China is important but not essential. American companies can survive and thrive without it.